NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
63.4%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
36.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 17.8 REB 4.6 AST 5.8 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.2 REB 5.3 AST 6.8 3PM 1.4
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PTS 14.3 REB 4.5 AST 2.6 3PM 2.6
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PTS 11.7 REB 5.7 AST 1.8 3PM 2.5
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PTS 26.0 REB 11.2 AST 3.5 3PM 1.8
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AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 28.6 REB 4.4 AST 6.5 3PM 1.4
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PTS 17.2 REB 4.3 AST 3.5 3PM 0.7
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 5.9 REB 3.7 AST 1.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 14.8 REB 7.5 AST 1.5 3PM 0.8
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PTS 8.2 REB 9.0 AST 3.0 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.6
DR
112.2
PTS
18.4
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
134.0
DR
108.9
PTS
30.6
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.5
DR
111.2
PTS
17.2
VS
Jalen Williams
OR
118.4
DR
109.6
PTS
17.1
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.8
DR
112.6
PTS
13.8
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
106.2
DR
111.8
PTS
7.9
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.1
DR
110.8
PTS
11.1
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
125.9
DR
103.8
PTS
17.0
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.6
DR
99.4
PTS
24.6
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
126.4
DR
103.5
PTS
9.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are picked to win (63.4% probability). Expected starting fives — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama; Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 217.0 points, signaling a moderately high-scoring game and a fairly up-tempo matchup between two potent offenses. The expected spread is 3.43 in favor of the home team (Home - Away), giving the home side roughly a 3.4-point edge to cover.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 217.0 Most likely outcome: 217 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Oklahoma City Thunder) 3.4 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s recent power rating trend is drifting down while Oklahoma City’s has been rising over the last five games.

San Antonio Spurs

1720.4 -18.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-26 Oklahoma City Thunder 1720.4 -9.8
2026-05-24 Oklahoma City Thunder 1730.2 +12.2
2026-05-22 Oklahoma City Thunder 1718.0 -11.0
2026-05-20 Oklahoma City Thunder 1729.0 -9.8
2026-05-18 Oklahoma City Thunder 1738.8 —

Oklahoma City Thunder

1758.1 +18.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-26 San Antonio Spurs 1758.1 +9.8
2026-05-24 San Antonio Spurs 1748.3 -12.2
2026-05-22 San Antonio Spurs 1760.5 +11.0
2026-05-20 San Antonio Spurs 1749.5 +9.9
2026-05-18 San Antonio Spurs 1739.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 114 127 -13
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 82 +21
Oklahoma City Thunder 108 123 -15
Oklahoma City Thunder 113 122 -9
Oklahoma City Thunder 122 115 +7

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 127 114 +13
San Antonio Spurs 82 103 -21
San Antonio Spurs 123 108 +15
San Antonio Spurs 122 113 +9
San Antonio Spurs 115 122 -7

Game Analysis

These teams have traded results across their last three meetings: San Antonio lost 114-127, won 103-82, and lost 108-123, while Oklahoma City’s recent slate mirrors that with two wins and a loss. That middle Spurs win shows they can control the game defensively, but the Thunder’s two wins underline their ability to score in bursts behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. Looking at the projected starting units, Spurs starters average an offensive rating of 118.52, a defensive rating of 109.24, and 17.02 points made per starter. The Thunder’s starters average a higher offensive rating (122.18), a slightly better defensive rating (107.52), and 16.36 points made per starter. Oklahoma City’s starting unit looks marginally stronger on paper offensively and defensively, but San Antonio gets a major tilt from Victor Wembanyama (offensive rating 120.6, defensive rating 99.4) that can swing possessions.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s edge comes down to Wembanyama’s two-way impact and the Spurs’ demonstrated ability to control a game defensively in their win. Key factor to watch: how Wembanyama matches up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren — his influence on both ends will likely decide the outcome.

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