NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
64.5%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
35.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 29.5 REB 4.5 AST 6.4 3PM 1.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 15.0 REB 3.5 AST 1.6 3PM 2.1
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PTS 7.4 REB 4.0 AST 1.4 3PM 1.7
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PTS 16.4 REB 8.3 AST 1.5 3PM 0.8
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PTS 10.1 REB 9.8 AST 3.5 3PM 0.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 17.4 REB 4.6 AST 5.4 3PM 1.6
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PTS 18.8 REB 5.2 AST 6.2 3PM 1.2
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PTS 13.2 REB 4.3 AST 2.2 3PM 2.5
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PTS 10.7 REB 5.4 AST 1.7 3PM 2.3
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PTS 25.5 REB 10.2 AST 3.1 3PM 1.8
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
133.3
DR
109.1
PTS
30.4
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.3
DR
112.0
PTS
18.2
SG
Jared McCain
OR
105.4
DR
114.9
PTS
10.2
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
117.9
DR
111.0
PTS
17.2
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.5
DR
111.8
PTS
7.9
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
117.1
DR
112.4
PTS
13.8
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
126.0
DR
103.9
PTS
16.9
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.1
DR
110.6
PTS
11.1
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
126.3
DR
103.9
PTS
9.2
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.6
DR
99.2
PTS
24.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (64.5% probability). Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein; San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 223.04 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with room for both half-court sets and transition chances. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 2.89, giving roughly a 3-point edge to whichever team is at home.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.0 Most likely outcome: 223 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - San Antonio Spurs) 2.9 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s power rating has slipped slightly over the last five games while San Antonio’s has inched up, with Thunder falling and Spurs rising.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1744.9 -4.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-28 San Antonio Spurs 1744.9 -13.2
2026-05-26 San Antonio Spurs 1758.1 +9.8
2026-05-24 San Antonio Spurs 1748.3 -12.2
2026-05-22 San Antonio Spurs 1760.5 +11.0
2026-05-20 San Antonio Spurs 1749.5 —

San Antonio Spurs

1733.6 +4.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-28 Oklahoma City Thunder 1733.6 +13.2
2026-05-26 Oklahoma City Thunder 1720.4 -9.8
2026-05-24 Oklahoma City Thunder 1730.2 +12.2
2026-05-22 Oklahoma City Thunder 1718.0 -11.0
2026-05-20 Oklahoma City Thunder 1729.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
L W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 91 118 -27
San Antonio Spurs 127 114 +13
San Antonio Spurs 82 103 -21
San Antonio Spurs 123 108 +15
San Antonio Spurs 122 113 +9

San Antonio Spurs

2-3 in last 5
W L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 118 91 +27
Oklahoma City Thunder 114 127 -13
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 82 +21
Oklahoma City Thunder 108 123 -15
Oklahoma City Thunder 113 122 -9

Game Analysis

The last three matchups between these teams show volatility: Oklahoma City lost 91-118, won 127-114, then lost 82-103, while San Antonio recorded the complementary results (118-91 win, 114-127 loss, 103-82 win). That back-and-forth pattern points to streaky scoring nights and matchup-driven outcomes rather than one team dominating consistently. Oklahoma City’s performances have swung from a 127-point outburst to a two sub-100 games, whereas San Antonio has been more balanced across those outings. Looking at the expected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of 119.3, a defensive rating of 108.7, and 14.9 average points made; San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 118.6, a defensive rating of 109.0, and 17.0 average points made. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (133.3 OR, 30.4 PPG) and Chet Holmgren (126.0 OR) give the Thunder an elite scoring and interior presence, while Victor Wembanyama (120.6 OR, 99.2 DR) and De'Aaron Fox provide San Antonio a two-way spine.

Final Prediction

The Thunder get the nod because of Shai’s elite scoring, strong offensive contributions from Holmgren and Hartenstein, and a slightly higher recent power level. Key factor to watch: how Oklahoma City handles Wembanyama’s rim protection — that matchup will likely decide whether the Thunder’s offense can sustain the predicted edge.

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