NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
55.5%
VS

New York Knicks

Away Team
44.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 16.8 REB 3.9 AST 5.9 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 5.1 AST 6.7 3PM 0.9
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PTS 13.4 REB 4.1 AST 2.6 3PM 2.2
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PTS 11.8 REB 5.3 AST 1.8 3PM 2.3
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PTS 24.6 REB 9.9 AST 3.3 3PM 1.6
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AWAY New York Knicks
PTS 23.9 REB 3.7 AST 5.7 3PM 2.2
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PTS 11.6 REB 7.0 AST 4.2 3PM 1.5
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 13.2 REB 4.2 AST 2.7 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 14.8 REB 5.6 AST 1.9 3PM 1.8
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PTS 16.5 REB 10.5 AST 3.2 3PM 1.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.4
DR
112.1
PTS
18.2
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
122.1
DR
115.5
PTS
26.2
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.6
DR
111.1
PTS
17.2
VS
Josh Hart
OR
118.2
DR
109.4
PTS
11.9
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
117.0
DR
112.4
PTS
13.7
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.9
DR
113.0
PTS
14.4
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.4
DR
110.6
PTS
11.1
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
122.5
DR
111.0
PTS
17.1
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.7
DR
99.3
PTS
24.6
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
125.3
DR
108.2
PTS
19.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are projected to win (55.5% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of 219.78 points, which points to a fairly high-scoring game and an up-tempo affair. The expected spread is Home - Away = 3.42, giving the home team roughly a 3.42-point edge on the board, though the prediction still favors the Spurs to cover that gap.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 219.8 Most likely outcome: 219 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - New York Knicks) 3.4 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show rising momentum over the last five games: San Antonio up +27.0 and New York up +35.8.

San Antonio Spurs

1745.0 +27.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-30 Oklahoma City Thunder 1745.0 +11.4
2026-05-28 Oklahoma City Thunder 1733.6 +13.2
2026-05-26 Oklahoma City Thunder 1720.4 -9.8
2026-05-24 Oklahoma City Thunder 1730.2 +12.2
2026-05-22 Oklahoma City Thunder 1718.0 —

New York Knicks

1705.3 +35.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1705.3 +10.1
2026-05-23 Cleveland Cavaliers 1695.2 +9.2
2026-05-21 Cleveland Cavaliers 1686.0 +8.4
2026-05-19 Cleveland Cavaliers 1677.6 +8.1
2026-05-10 Philadelphia 76ers 1669.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 103 +8
Oklahoma City Thunder 118 91 +27
Oklahoma City Thunder 114 127 -13
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 82 +21
Oklahoma City Thunder 108 123 -15

New York Knicks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 130 93 +37
Cleveland Cavaliers 121 108 +13
Cleveland Cavaliers 109 93 +16
Cleveland Cavaliers 115 104 +11
Philadelphia 76ers 144 114 +30

Game Analysis

San Antonio split their last three against Oklahoma City (two wins 111-103, 118-91; one loss 114-127), showing they can both defend and score in stretches but remain vulnerable. New York arrives on a three-game win streak over Cleveland (130-93, 121-108, 109-93), with consistent offensive outbursts and comfortable margins in each victory. Looking at the starters, San Antonio’s group averages an offensive rating of 118.62, a defensive rating of 109.10, and 16.96 points made per starter; Victor Wembanyama’s 99.3 defensive rating is a clear anchor. New York’s starters average a 122.8 offensive rating, 111.42 defensive rating, and 17.84 points made per starter, reflecting stronger firepower but slightly weaker team defense. That contrast — Spurs’ sturdier defense vs Knicks’ higher offensive efficiency — will be central to the outcome.

Final Prediction

The Spurs’ edge comes from a tighter defensive profile and Wembanyama’s impact, which the numbers show can blunt high-octane offenses. Key factor to watch: how San Antonio’s defense, especially Wembanyama, contains New York’s top offensive pieces (Brunson and Towns) early.

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