NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
56.5%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
43.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 26.1 REB 3.8 AST 5.6 3PM 2.4
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PTS 10.7 REB 7.8 AST 5.0 3PM 1.5
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PTS 13.6 REB 4.3 AST 3.2 3PM 1.6
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PTS 16.9 REB 5.4 AST 2.1 3PM 2.0
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PTS 18.0 REB 10.8 AST 3.3 3PM 1.2
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 16.8 REB 3.8 AST 5.6 3PM 1.7
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PTS 18.1 REB 5.2 AST 6.0 3PM 1.1
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PTS 12.2 REB 4.4 AST 2.4 3PM 2.4
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PTS 11.0 REB 5.1 AST 1.7 3PM 2.6
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PTS 25.1 REB 10.1 AST 3.2 3PM 1.9
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.1
DR
115.4
PTS
26.2
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
116.5
DR
112.0
PTS
18.0
SG
Josh Hart
OR
117.6
DR
109.0
PTS
11.7
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
117.1
DR
111.1
PTS
17.2
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.3
DR
112.9
PTS
14.3
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
117.4
DR
112.4
PTS
13.6
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
123.3
DR
110.9
PTS
17.3
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.7
DR
110.7
PTS
11.2
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
125.2
DR
108.1
PTS
19.5
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.5
DR
99.5
PTS
24.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The New York Knicks are projected to win (56.5% probability). Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of about 216.95 points, which points to a moderately paced game with room for both half-court sets and transition scoring. The expected spread (home - away) is 4.55, giving the home team roughly a 4.5-point edge entering the matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 216.9 Most likely outcome: 216 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - San Antonio Spurs) 4.5 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

The Knicks’ power rating has climbed from 1695.2 to 1717.2 (+22.0 over five games) while the Spurs have been essentially flat (1733.6 → 1733.1, -0.5).

New York Knicks

1717.2 +22.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-06-08 San Antonio Spurs 1717.2 -10.7
2026-06-05 San Antonio Spurs 1727.9 +10.4
2026-06-03 San Antonio Spurs 1717.5 +12.2
2026-05-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1705.3 +10.1
2026-05-23 Cleveland Cavaliers 1695.2 —

San Antonio Spurs

1733.1 -0.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-06-08 New York Knicks 1733.1 +10.7
2026-06-05 New York Knicks 1722.4 -10.5
2026-06-03 New York Knicks 1732.9 -12.1
2026-05-30 Oklahoma City Thunder 1745.0 +11.4
2026-05-28 Oklahoma City Thunder 1733.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 111 115 -4
San Antonio Spurs 105 104 +1
San Antonio Spurs 105 95 +10
Cleveland Cavaliers 130 93 +37
Cleveland Cavaliers 121 108 +13

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 115 111 +4
New York Knicks 104 105 -1
New York Knicks 95 105 -10
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 103 +8
Oklahoma City Thunder 118 91 +27

Game Analysis

These teams have split recent meetings with the Knicks 2-1 over the last three (105-95, 105-104 wins and a 111-115 loss), showing they’ve tightened up after an early loss. The Spurs’ lone win in that stretch was the 115-111 result, but San Antonio dropped the two earlier contests by one and ten points; that suggests close edges can flip either way late in games. Recent scores show the Knicks holding the Spurs to as low as 95 in a win, indicating defensive adjustments have mattered. Looking at starters, New York’s five average an offensive rating of 122.5, a defensive rating of 111.26, and 17.8 points made per starter; San Antonio’s projected five average an offensive rating of 118.44, a defensive rating of 109.14, and 17.0 points made per starter. The Knicks bring a slight offensive advantage, while the Spurs — buoyed by Victor Wembanyama’s 99.5 defensive rating and 24.8 scoring average — provide a disruptive presence on both ends.

Final Prediction

The Knicks’ recent upward momentum and higher collective offensive rating give them the edge in a tight matchup. Watch how effectively New York contains Wembanyama and whether Brunson (26.2 average) can dictate the tempo — that matchup will likely decide the game.

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