NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
64.4%
VS

New York Knicks

Away Team
35.6%
2025-2026 Season

Why the Model Favors San Antonio Spurs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 San Antonio Spurs
Starting five +5.6 San Antonio Spurs
Recent team form +2.3 New York Knicks
Season record & ratings +1.4 San Antonio Spurs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for San Antonio Spurs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 17.6 REB 4.0 AST 6.1 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.4 REB 5.5 AST 6.3 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.8 REB 4.7 AST 2.7 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.0 REB 5.3 AST 1.8 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.7 REB 10.8 AST 3.3 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New York Knicks
PTS 25.8 REB 3.9 AST 5.5 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.6 REB 7.7 AST 4.8 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.2 REB 4.0 AST 3.0 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.8 REB 5.3 AST 1.9 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.2 REB 10.9 AST 2.9 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
116.4
DR
112.0
PTS
18.0
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.1
DR
115.3
PTS
26.3
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.2
DR
111.2
PTS
17.1
VS
Josh Hart
OR
117.6
DR
109.0
PTS
11.6
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
118.1
DR
112.5
PTS
13.7
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.0
DR
113.0
PTS
14.2
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.3
DR
110.6
PTS
11.1
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
123.9
DR
111.0
PTS
17.5
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.3
DR
99.7
PTS
24.8
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
125.3
DR
108.1
PTS
19.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are predicted to win (64.4% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 214.67 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring affair and a reasonably brisk pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = 4.67, giving the Spurs about a 4.7-point edge at home.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 214.7 Most likely outcome: 214 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - New York Knicks) 4.7 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s ratings have drifted downward over the last five games while New York’s trend has been upward.

San Antonio Spurs

1723.2 -21.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-06-10 New York Knicks 1723.2 -9.9
2026-06-08 New York Knicks 1733.1 +10.7
2026-06-05 New York Knicks 1722.4 -10.5
2026-06-03 New York Knicks 1732.9 -12.1
2026-05-30 Oklahoma City Thunder 1745.0 —

New York Knicks

1727.1 +21.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-06-10 San Antonio Spurs 1727.1 +9.9
2026-06-08 San Antonio Spurs 1717.2 -10.7
2026-06-05 San Antonio Spurs 1727.9 +10.4
2026-06-03 San Antonio Spurs 1717.5 +12.2
2026-05-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1705.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 106 107 -1
New York Knicks 115 111 +4
New York Knicks 104 105 -1
New York Knicks 95 105 -10
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 103 +8

New York Knicks

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 107 106 +1
San Antonio Spurs 111 115 -4
San Antonio Spurs 105 104 +1
San Antonio Spurs 105 95 +10
Cleveland Cavaliers 130 93 +37

Game Analysis

The model’s edge for San Antonio comes mainly from home-court advantage (7.6 percentage points) and the Spurs’ starting five (5.6 points). That’s reflected in Victor Wembanyama’s defensive rating of 99.7 — the best on the floor — and a Spurs starting group averaging an offensive rating of 118.46, defensive rating of 109.2, and 16.94 points made per starter. The Knicks’ starters carry a higher offensive profile (average offensive rating 122.58 and 17.8 points made per starter) but a slightly worse collective defensive rating (111.28). The recent series has been razor-close: San Antonio is 1-2 over the last three meetings (loss 106-107, win 115-111, loss 104-105) and New York is 2-1 in the same stretch, which helps explain the 2.3 percentage points of edge toward New York from recent form. Power ratings show Spurs down modestly and Knicks up, but home-court and the Spurs’ starting five tilt the matchup back to San Antonio.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s home-court advantage is the top reason they’re favored. The matchup to watch is Wembanyama’s impact on New York’s primary scorers — how well he contains Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson will likely decide the outcome.

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