London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 16

Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #36
31%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #22
69%
Expected Total Games: 26.2
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Why the Model Favors Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.4 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Recent form +4.2 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Overall strength +4.2 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Surface fit +3.3 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Overall record & opposition quality +2.3 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #36 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #33 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #35 2025-12-15
  • 9 mo ago #39 2025-09-15
  • 12 mo ago #89 2025-06-16

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #22 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #17 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-12-15
  • 9 mo ago #20 2025-09-15
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-06-16

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 18.4
ELO Rating: 1573.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1626.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 170.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.9
Clay: 16.2
Grass: 19.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 92.7

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 36.8
ELO Rating: 1681.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1723.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.8
Clay: 25.8
Grass: 28.8
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) grass London 170 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nick Kyrgios (0-2) grass Stuttgart 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) clay Hamburg 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (1-2) clay Rome 182 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) grass London 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Mattia Bellucci (1-2) grass Stuttgart 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Hamburg 159 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 grass-court meeting in London (500-level) pits Corentin Moutet against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The model projects Davidovich Fokina to win (69.23%) while Moutet is given a 30.77% chance; the predicted total number of games is about 26.22.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Davidovich Fokina comes mainly from recent record by level and recent form, supported by his higher Elo and lower fatigue. Davidovich sits 22nd in the rankings with an Elo of 1681.3 and a form index of 36.84, while Moutet is 36th with an Elo of 1573.0 and a form index of 18.36. Fatigue is notable: Moutet has logged 170 minutes in this event to Davidovich’s 90, a gap that favors the fresher Spaniard. Surface fit also nudges Davidovich ahead (surface strength indices: 28.81 vs 19.55). Serving and returning profiles paint an interesting contrast. Mean serve indices are almost identical (Moutet 95.25, Davidovich 94.77), so there’s no clear serving advantage, but Moutet’s mean return index is meaningfully higher (92.73 vs 86.70), which could pressure Davidovich’s service games. Recent form over three matches is similar: Moutet has one win (London) and two defeats (including a straight-sets loss to Kyrgios and a five-set loss at Roland Garros), while Davidovich also enters 1–2 across his last three, with a straight-sets London win over Norrie and earlier losses in Stuttgart and Paris.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.2 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Corentin Moutet - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) -1.5 Most likely spread: -2 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at a predicted aces total of roughly 9.29 for the match and an expected double faults figure near 4.08. Grass typically elevates ace counts because of the quick, low bounce; given both players’ very similar serve indices, the predicted aces reflect surface speed more than a single serving dominance. The expected double faults are modest; watch for fatigue-related upticks, particularly from Moutet, which could push his personal double faults higher than average.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.3 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Corentin Moutet's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s advantage is led by recent record by level — he combines superior Elo, better recent form and lower fatigue on a grass court. Key factor to watch: whether Moutet’s high return index can neutralize Davidovich’s service holds early and force breaks that make the match tighter than the raw probabilities suggest.

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