Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rublev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 16) with a much stronger Elo (2188.8) compared to Tabilo (rank 41, Elo 832.27). His form index (44.38) is behind Tabilo’s (55.14), but Rublev shows a higher surface strength index (13.03 vs 7.52). Fatigue figures differ: Rublev registers 0.0 minutes in-tournament, while Tabilo shows 77 minutes on court already, a factor to monitor for recovery and movement late in rallies. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Tabilo’s mean serve index (99.15) is substantially higher than Rublev’s (77.03), a gap of more than 20 points that suggests Tabilo can produce more free points on serve. Likewise Tabilo’s mean return index (90.13) far exceeds Rublev’s (56.72) by over 33 points, indicating strong return capability when he’s on. Recent results underline the contrast: Rublev has one comfortable win (Rinderknech) and two losses (Griekspoor, Diallo, the latter a 172-minute battle), while Tabilo comes in with two wins at Miami and Indian Wells and a straight-sets loss to Medvedev. Match lengths for Tabilo’s recent wins were relatively short (58–77 minutes), though his Miami fatigue is nonzero.