S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 16

Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Martin Damm

Rank: #114
32%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
68%
Expected Total Games: 25.5
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Ranking Trends

Martin Damm

  • Current #114 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #129 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #177 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #281 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #6 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #7 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-06-09

Player Metrics

Martin Damm

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 1634.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 182.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.2
Clay: 14.2
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 89.2

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 34.7
ELO Rating: 1787.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1882.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.9
Clay: 30.9
Grass: 37.2
Serve Rating: 93.4
Return Rating: 84.7

Recent Matches

Martin Damm
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Pablo Ficovich (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 59 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Max Houkes (2-1) grass S Hertogenbosch 123 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (0-2) clay Rome 70 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) clay Madrid 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) clay Madrid 107 min

Alex de Minaur
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Toby Samuel (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (1-0) clay Hamburg 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) clay Hamburg 159 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) clay Hamburg 129 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Martin Damm
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 showdown at s'Hertogenbosch in the Netherlands is on grass at a 250-level event. Alex de Minaur is the projected winner with a 68.42% chance, while Martin Damm sits at 31.58%; the model expects about 25.5 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the contrast is clear: Martin Damm is world No. 114 with an Elo of 1634.9 and a form index near 50, while Alex de Minaur is ranked No. 6 with a higher Elo of 1787.7 despite a lower form index (≈34.7). Fatigue is a notable factor — Damm has accumulated 182 minutes on court this week, whereas de Minaur arrives without minutes logged at this event. Surface strength indices favor de Minaur (37.15) over Damm (9.95), suggesting the Australian’s game projects better to grass according to the proprietary measures. Both men carry strong serve profiles (mean serve indices: Damm ≈96.9, de Minaur ≈93.4) and Damm also posts a very robust mean return index (≈89.2). Over their last three matches Damm has two wins at s'Hertogenbosch (straight sets win over Juan Pablo Ficovich and a three-setter against Max Houkes) after a clay loss to Pablo Carreño Busta. De Minaur’s recent slate shows two wins followed by a loss at Roland Garros (a long 174-minute match against Jakub Menšík), so he brings match toughness but less tournament court time in the Netherlands.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.5 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Martin Damm - Alex de Minaur) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (Alex de Minaur wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction points to a relatively high tally: the model’s predicted aces for the match are 17.36, while the double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults figure of 4.88. Grass generally boosts serve dominance and drives up aces, and with both players displaying strong serve indices the predicted aces total is consistent with surface tendencies. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces should be shared rather than concentrated.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.4 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Martin Damm's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (43.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s higher ranking, superior Elo and a much lower fatigue load give him the edge on paper, reinforced by a stronger surface strength index for grass. The key factor to watch will be serve-hold efficiency — how the pair manage aces and double faults early will likely decide the number of breaks and ultimately the match outcome.

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