Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
72%
VS

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #84
28%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #9 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #9 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #6 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #10 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-03-17

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Current #84 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #95 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #96 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #97 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 55.4
ELO Rating: 3774.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1758.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.0
Clay: 30.9
Grass: 31.4
Serve Rating: 81.4
Return Rating: 46.8

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 47.9
ELO Rating: 712.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1586.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 90.9

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Indian Wells 129 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-1) hard Indian Wells 132 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Dallas 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Dallas 156 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Dallas 118 min

Alexander Shevchenko
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) hard Miami 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) hard Indian Wells 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-1) hard Indian Wells 130 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Dubai 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Dubai 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Alexander Shevchenko
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, Round of 64 on hard courts, Ben Shelton is favored to beat Alexander Shevchenko. The model gives Shelton a 71.54% chance to win versus 28.46% for Shevchenko, with a projected total of about 23.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shelton arrives ranked No. 9 with a strong Elo (3774.6), a form index of 55.4 and no accumulated fatigue from this event. His mean serve index (81.4) pairs with a modest surface strength reading (24.0) that suggests comfort on medium-paced hard courts. Shevchenko is ranked 84 with a much lower Elo (712.6) and a form index near 47.9, but carries 147 minutes of fatigue from his opener in Miami; his surface strength index is only 6.3. There are notable contrasts in their profiles: Shevchenko posts a substantially higher mean serve index (97.4 vs. Shelton’s 81.4), and his mean return index (90.9) also exceeds Shelton’s (46.8) by a wide margin — both differences are well over 5 points and will be decisive match-up features. Recent form lines show Shelton won two tough three-setters (against Taylor Fritz in Dallas and Reilly Opelka at Indian Wells) before losing a long R32 match to Learner Tien. Shevchenko’s recent stretch includes a long, 147-minute win over Matteo Arnaldi in Miami, a prior loss to Casper Ruud and a win over Sho Shimabukuro, indicating resilience but also contributing to his fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Alexander Shevchenko) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Ben Shelton wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 8.9 total, with predicted aces concentrated if Shevchenko’s high serve index translates under pressure. The double faults prediction sits at roughly 6.37 expected double faults; the medium-paced hard court tends to produce a moderate ace count and some risk on second serves. Given Shevchenko’s much higher serve rating, he is the likeliest source of a larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shelton’s edge comes from a superior ranking and Elo, strong serving numbers, and freshness after zero minutes played in Miami, outweighing Shevchenko’s high serve/return indices and recent win. The key factor to watch will be whether Shevchenko’s serve and return firepower can overcome fatigue early in rallies.

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