Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Zverev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
26%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #4
74%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #19 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #21 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-03-17

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #4 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #3 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #2 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 83.0
ELO Rating: 1849.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1864.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 297.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.2
Clay: 42.7
Grass: 40.5
Serve Rating: 78.3
Return Rating: 88.5

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 81.5
ELO Rating: 2044.4
Glicko2 Rating: 2037.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 226.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 84.2
Clay: 71.6
Grass: 72.2
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Miami 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Miami 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-0) hard Miami 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (0-2) hard Indian Wells 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-1) hard Indian Wells 149 min

Alexander Zverev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-1) hard Miami 157 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (2-0) hard Miami 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Indian Wells 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Indian Wells 89 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
2
Alexander Zverev
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
2 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miami quarterfinals in Florida on hard courts — a Masters 1000 stage — pits No. 19 Francisco Cerundolo against No. 4 Alexander Zverev. The model favors Zverev (74.24%) over Cerundolo (25.76%), with a predicted total of about 22.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper Zverev carries the clearer profile for hard courts: a much higher Elo (2044.4 vs 1849.8) and a superior surface strength index (84.16 vs 58.22). Cerundolo’s form index is slightly higher (83.02 to 81.50), but he arrives with noticeably more minutes on court this week (297 vs 226), which could matter in a tight quarterfinal. The serve gap is significant — Zverev’s mean serve index (97.84) exceeds Cerundolo’s (78.26) by nearly 20 points — and that will shape many quick points. Their return indices are close, so baseline exchanges should be competitive. Cerundolo has been undefeated through his three Miami outings per the supplied results, including comfortable wins over Ugo Humbert and Thiago Tirante and a long 137-minute encounter earlier in the event. Zverev has also progressed, with wins over Marin Cilic and Martin Damm this week and a recent loss to Jannik Sinner at Indian Wells. The contrasting paths — Cerundolo’s heavier court time versus Zverev’s cleaner service profile and superior hard-court numbers — set a classic clash of returner grit against big-serving power.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Alexander Zverev) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Alexander Zverev wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction: the match is expected to produce roughly 11.18 aces total, with Zverev’s dominant serve likely responsible for the bulk of them. Predicted aces are elevated by Zverev’s high serve index, while the hard-court surface here supports a moderate ace count. Double faults prediction: expected double faults sit around 6.43 for the match, a modest number consistent with hard courts; Zverev’s serving aggression could slightly raise his share of expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zverev’s edge comes from a big serving profile, higher Elo and better hard-court pedigree, plus fresher legs. The key factor to watch is whether Cerundolo’s strong returning can neutralize Zverev’s serve early; if not, Zverev should close this in relatively few games.

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