Marrakech Morocco Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Vit Kopriva vs Alexandre Muller: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #70
40%
VS

Alexandre Muller

Rank: #94
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Alexandre Muller

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Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 63.8
ELO Rating: 1641.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 145.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.9
Clay: 42.3
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 65.6
Return Rating: 79.3

Alexandre Muller

Form Index: 45.7
ELO Rating: 1598.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.6
Clay: 41.9
Grass: 40.7
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) clay Marrakech 145 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Indian Wells 125 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Michael Zheng (2-0) hard Indian Wells 129 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Indian Wells 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) hard Indian Wells 104 min

Alexandre Muller

  • Last Match: vs Federico Cina (2-0) clay Marrakech 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Matteo Berrettini (0-2) hard Miami 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (0-2) hard Auckland 73 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Alexandre Muller
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Marrakech, Morocco — Round of 16 on clay at a 250-level event sees Vit Kopriva face Alexandre Muller in a matchup between two clay-capable baseliners. The model favors Muller to advance (59.77%) while Kopriva carries a 40.23% chance; the clash is projected to be tight, with an expected 23.22 total games.

Match Analysis

Kopriva arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 70) with a stronger form index (63.76) and a slightly superior Elo (1641.08) compared with Muller (rank 94, form 45.70, Elo 1598.93). Kopriva’s tournament fatigue is substantial (145 minutes on court), whereas Muller is noticeably fresher (70 minutes). Both show nearly identical surface strength indices on clay (Kopriva 42.29, Muller 41.90), suggesting neither has a pronounced clay-court edge based on the index. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply: Muller’s mean serve index (97.83) is far higher than Kopriva’s (65.60) — a difference well above 5 points — and Muller also posts the stronger mean return index (91.53 versus Kopriva’s 79.28), another gap exceeding 5 points. Recent results underline contrasting paths into Marrakech: Kopriva has three mixed showings (a long, three-set win over Hamad Medjedovic in Marrakech, a loss to Alexander Bublik at Indian Wells, and a win over Michael Zheng), indicating resilience but accumulated court time. Muller has been more efficient at this event — a straight-sets, 70-minute win over Federico Cina — but his prior hard-court losses to top opponents (Berrettini, Zverev) came in longer, taxing encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Alexandre Muller) +2.5 Most likely spread: +2 (Vit Kopriva wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. Positive values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games, negative values indicate Alexandre Muller winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 15.67 total (predicted aces), while the double faults prediction is modestly above five (expected double faults ≈ 5.05). Clay typically reduces ace counts due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, so a large portion of those aces would likely come from Muller’s superior serve. Given Muller’s very high serve index, this should lift the ace tally despite the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.7 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Alexandre Muller. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Muller’s edge comes from superior serving and return metrics combined with fresher legs, which outweigh Kopriva’s higher ranking and recent tough win. Watch Muller’s serve effectiveness early: if he converts free points and keeps his first-serve percentage up, he should control short points and tilt the tight, low-game total in his favor.

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