Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Alexei Popyrin vs Patrick Kypson: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #45
60%
VS

Patrick Kypson

Rank: #96
40%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #45 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #53 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #40 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-03-31

Patrick Kypson

  • Current #96 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #118 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #184 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #240 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #424 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 28.7
ELO Rating: 1512.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1484.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.2
Clay: 43.6
Grass: 40.1
Serve Rating: 79.4
Return Rating: 57.7

Patrick Kypson

Form Index: 33.0
ELO Rating: 1481.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1453.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.2
Clay: 38.8
Grass: 40.2
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Miami 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Indian Wells 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Dubai 64 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Dubai 112 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Doha 84 min

Patrick Kypson
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (0-2) hard Miami 55 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Merida (1-2) hard Indian Wells 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Acapulco 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-1) hard Acapulco 159 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Coleman Wong (2-0) hard Acapulco 64 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Patrick Kypson
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Houston clay event in Texas, round of 32 action pits Alexei Popyrin against Patrick Kypson in a 250-level singles match. The model favors Alexei Popyrin to advance (60.47% probability) over Patrick Kypson (39.53%), with a projected total of about 23.7 games in the encounter.

Match Analysis

Popyrin arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 45) with the stronger Elo (1512.4) and a surface strength index of 43.64, slightly ahead of Kypson’s 38.78. Popyrin’s mean serve index (79.41) is solid for clay; Kypson’s serve index (98.82) is markedly higher—more than a 5-point gap—so his serve is a clear weapon on paper. Return figures show an even larger split: Kypson’s mean return index (89.70) greatly outstrips Popyrin’s (57.68), which suggests Kypson can counterpunch effectively once rallies begin. Form over the last three matches is poor for both men: each lost their past three matches (all on hard courts), with none registering a win in Miami, Indian Wells, or prior events. Neither player carries cumulative fatigue from this tournament into Houston (both fatigue values 0.0), so freshness shouldn’t be a differentiator. Combined, Kypson’s elite serve and return indices contrast with Popyrin’s better ranking, marginally stronger clay profile, and higher Elo, which underpins the predicted edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Patrick Kypson) +0.9 Most likely spread: +1 (Alexei Popyrin wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 19.02 total, while the expected double faults tally sits at 5.0. On clay, predicted aces tend to be suppressed relative to faster surfaces due to slower ball speed and higher bounce; similarly, the expected double faults reflect how longer rallies and physical demand can increase errors. Kypson’s significantly higher serve rating is likely to lift the predicted aces, even on clay, while Popyrin’s lower serve index means fewer free points on his delivery.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.0 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Popyrin’s edge comes from superior ranking, a higher Elo and a marginally better clay aptitude, which offset Kypson’s powerful serve and standout return metrics. The key factor to watch is whether Kypson’s serve and return dominance translates into short service games; if he does, the match could be tighter than odds suggest.

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