Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #23
46%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #31
54%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #23 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #15 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-03-17

Arthur Fils

  • Current #31 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #40 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #23 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 78.3
ELO Rating: 1829.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1856.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 341.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.9
Clay: 46.8
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 61.5
Return Rating: 52.0

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 88.9
ELO Rating: 1850.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1923.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 253.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 79.5
Clay: 66.9
Grass: 61.2
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) hard Miami 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-1) hard Miami 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-1) hard Miami 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-2) hard Indian Wells 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Indian Wells 68 min

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Vacherot (2-1) hard Miami 133 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (1-0) hard Miami 55 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Darwin Blanch (2-0) hard Miami 65 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Indian Wells 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-0) hard Indian Wells 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals at the Miami Masters in Florida stage a hard-court clash between Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils. The model favors Arthur Fils to advance (54.15% vs Paul 45.85%), with a predicted total of about 23.85 games in the match — suggesting a straight-set scoreline or a tight two-setter.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul arrives as world No. 23 with a solid form index of 78.3 and an Elo of 1829.3. He has accumulated more on-court minutes this week (341 minutes), which could translate to fatigue late in matches. His hard-court surface strength is moderate (56.9), and his mean serve and return indexes (61.5 and 52.0) point to a reliable but not overpowering baseline game. Arthur Fils, ranked 31st, carries hotter form (88.9) and a slightly higher Elo (1850.5). He has spent less time on court this tournament (253 minutes) and boasts a markedly stronger hard-court profile (surface strength 79.5). The difference in mean serve index between the two players is large — Fils 97.7 vs Paul 61.5 — and his mean return index is also substantially higher (89.3 vs 52.0). Both players are unbeaten in their three matches here; Paul has needed longer matches overall, while Fils has produced a more emphatic run, including a quick win over a higher-seeded opponent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Arthur Fils) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Arthur Fils wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this tie is 11.18 total, with an expected double faults count of 6.43. On Miami’s medium-paced hard courts, those predicted aces reflect a balance between serve potency and a consistent bounce; predicted aces are skewed toward Fils because his serve index is so much higher. For double faults prediction and expected double faults, Fils’ aggressive serving profile can raise both the ace count and the risk of free points against him, while Paul’s steadier serve should produce fewer outright errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fils’ edge comes down to superior serving and returning metrics, higher form and a marginally stronger Elo, combined with lower cumulative fatigue. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Paul can neutralize Fils’ serve — if he converts early return opportunities, he can swing this match; if Fils holds comfortably, his power should carry him through.

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