Bucharest Romania Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Alexander Shevchenko vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #76
57%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #62
43%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Alexander Shevchenko

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 74.7
ELO Rating: 1656.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 74.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.2
Clay: 41.4
Grass: 39.1
Serve Rating: 73.9
Return Rating: 71.0

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 51.9
ELO Rating: 1645.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1703.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.2
Clay: 39.3
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 91.9

Recent Matches

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Last Match: vs Radu David Turcanu (2-0) clay Bucharest 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Miami 81 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (2-1) hard Miami 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) hard Miami 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-2) hard Indian Wells 86 min

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Last Match: vs Francesco Maestrelli (2-0) clay Bucharest 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Miami 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (2-0) hard Miami 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) hard Indian Wells 162 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (0-2) hard Dubai 70 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Shevchenko
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the round of 16 in Bucharest, Romania, on clay at an ATP 250 event, Alexander Shevchenko is the narrow favorite over Botic van de Zandschulp. The model gives Shevchenko a 57.11% chance to win against Botic’s 42.89%, with a predicted total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shevchenko (rank 76) arrives with a stronger form index (74.7) and a slightly higher Elo (1656.6) than van de Zandschulp (rank 62, form 51.9, Elo 1645.1). Fatigue is comparable — 74 minutes on court for Shevchenko versus 70 for Botic — and both have modest clay-specific strength indices (41.4 vs 39.3). There is a clear gap in serving and returning profiles: Botic’s mean serve index (97.7) is substantially higher than Shevchenko’s (73.9), and his mean return index (91.9) also exceeds Shevchenko’s (71.0) by more than five points, a factor that will shape many pivotal games. Recent form tells a complementary story. Shevchenko has won two of his last three matches, including a straight-sets victory in Bucharest and a gritty win over Ben Shelton in Miami, with a loss to Ugo Humbert in between. Botic has likewise recorded two wins out of three, most recently defeating Francesco Maestrelli in Bucharest and earlier beating Denis Shapovalov in Miami, with a tightly contested loss to Taylor Fritz. Both players have shown the ability to close matches, but Shevchenko’s higher form index and slightly superior Elo tilt the balance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Shevchenko - Botic van de Zandschulp) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Botic van de Zandschulp wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. Positive values indicate Alexander Shevchenko winning more games, negative values indicate Botic van de Zandschulp winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay matchup sits at about 10.86 total, while the expected double faults are 6.27. Clay typically reduces the raw ace count due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, so the predicted aces reflect that surface effect. That said, Botic’s significantly higher serve rating could still lift the predicted aces modestly despite the clay; the expected double faults account for longer rallies and late-match fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Alexander Shevchenko versus Botic van de Zandschulp. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Shevchenko’s edge comes from current form and a marginally stronger overall rating, while Botic’s big-serving and returning metrics make him a live danger, especially on serve games. The key factor to watch will be whether Botic can convert his serve advantage into free points on clay or if Shevchenko’s form and returns can neutralize that weapon.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel