Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Denis Shapovalov vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #38
55%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #65
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #38 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-03-17

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current #65 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #77 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #83 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #91 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #85 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 43.6
ELO Rating: 1489.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1613.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 12.7
Serve Rating: 74.4
Return Rating: 60.9

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 29.0
ELO Rating: 894.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1573.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 92.1

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Indian Wells 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-1) hard Indian Wells 158 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-1) hard Indian Wells 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (0-2) hard Dubai 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Dallas 156 min

Botic van de Zandschulp
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) hard Indian Wells 162 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (0-2) hard Dubai 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) hard Rotterdam 164 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) hard Rotterdam 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Luka Pavlovic (2-0) hard Rotterdam 95 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miami, FL — Round of 128 on outdoor hard courts at a Masters 1000 event opens with Denis Shapovalov facing Botic van de Zandschulp. The model gives Shapovalov the edge: a 54.93% chance to win versus 45.07% for van de Zandschulp, with a predicted total of about 23.39 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shapovalov arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 38) with a stronger Elo (1489.15) and a better recent form index (43.65) compared with van de Zandschulp (rank 65, Elo 894.49, form 29.02). Both report zero accumulated fatigue for the tournament and modest surface strength indices (Shapovalov 10.08, van de Zandschulp 8.59). Statistically, van de Zandschulp holds markedly higher mean serve (97.70 vs 74.36) and mean return (92.06 vs 60.91) indices — differences well beyond five points — which will be central to how points are constructed on this medium-paced hard court. Recent results underline the contrast in momentum. Shapovalov has two wins from his last three matches at Indian Wells — notable victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tomas Martin Etcheverry — before a loss to Jannik Sinner. Van de Zandschulp has struggled in recent outings, recording three straight defeats (to Juan Manuel Cerundolo, Pablo Carreno Busta and Alex de Minaur), with long hard-court matches but without converting to wins. Those sequences help explain the model’s narrow lean toward Shapovalov: higher Elo and recent big-match wins offset van de Zandschulp’s strong serve/return metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Denis Shapovalov - Botic van de Zandschulp) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Denis Shapovalov wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at an expected 13.22 for the match, while the expected double faults are 4.4. On this hard court — a medium-paced, consistent-bounce surface — predicted aces are moderate; grass would inflate aces while clay would depress them. Given van de Zandschulp’s substantially higher mean serve index, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which in turn could influence short service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s higher Elo, recent tournament wins and current form give him a narrow overall edge. The key factor to watch is van de Zandschulp’s serving and returning potency: if his big-serve numbers translate under Miami conditions, he can swing this tight matchup.

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