Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carabelli (rank 67) comes in with a slightly higher form index (60.64) and an Elo of 1588.81, but he carries more court time in this event (315 minutes) which could factor into his legs late in rallies. His surface strength index on clay is 41.10 and his mean serve index sits at 79.87. Van Assche (rank 109) posts a comparable form index (59.85) and a marginally higher Elo (1590.88) while being a bit fresher with 270 minutes in the tournament; his surface strength index is 39.74. The gap in mean serve index is notable: Van Assche’s 95.32 is more than 15 points higher than Carabelli’s, and his mean return index (88.21) also exceeds Carabelli’s 75.13 by about 13 points — both differences worth highlighting. Across their recent three matches, Carabelli has won two clay encounters in Marrakech — long affairs of 166 and 149 minutes — after a straight-sets loss on hard courts in Miami. Van Assche likewise reached this stage with two wins in Marrakech (including a straight-sets victory and a three-setter) after a long, three-set loss on hard. Both players have shown match toughness on clay this week, with Van Assche’s superior serve and return metrics balanced against Carabelli’s slightly higher ranking and heavier match rhythm.