Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
90%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #50
10%
Expected Total Games: 21.7
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #1 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #1 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #2 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-04-07

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #50 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #43 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #42 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #38 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 41.9
ELO Rating: 2462.6
Glicko2 Rating: 2664.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 73.5
Clay: 67.6
Grass: 68.0
Serve Rating: 57.9
Return Rating: 68.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 52.8
ELO Rating: 1686.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 107.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.3
Clay: 40.4
Grass: 41.3
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 93.6

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (1-2) hard Miami 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-0) hard Miami 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Indian Wells 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Indian Wells 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-0) hard Indian Wells 90 min

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 107 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (0-2) clay Bucharest 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) clay Bucharest 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Adam Walton (0-2) hard Miami 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Indian Wells 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Monte Carlo Masters in Monaco, round of 32 on clay, top seed Carlos Alcaraz meets Sebastian Baez in a matchup that pairs a clay specialist against an in-form challenger. The model strongly favors Alcaraz to advance (89.73% vs 10.27% for Baez), with a projected 21.67 total games — suggesting a straight-sets victory with few extended sets.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz arrives as world No. 1 with an Elo of 2462.6, a surface strength index of 67.6 and a form index of 41.9; crucially he shows zero minutes of fatigue in this event. Baez is No. 50, with a far lower Elo (1686.1), a surface strength index of 40.4 and a slightly higher form index (52.8), but carries 107 minutes of court time already. The contrast in service and return profiles is stark: Baez’s mean serve index (97.23) is dramatically higher than Alcaraz’s (57.93), and Baez also posts a much stronger mean return index (93.62) versus Alcaraz’s 68.90 — both differences exceed 5 points and merit attention given how they shape patterns on clay. Recent form paints different pictures. Alcaraz has three hard-court outings with a win over Joao Fonseca and defeats to Medvedev and Korda, indicating some volatility but freshness for Monte Carlo. Baez arrives with two clay wins in his last three, including a straight-sets victory over Stan Wawrinka in Monaco, bookended by a loss to Titouan Droguet; his match minutes in this event add a wear-and-tear factor that the numbers flag.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.7 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Sebastian Baez) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 9.99 and the expected double faults are 5.51. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because the slow surface and higher bounce give returners extra time, while expected double faults can climb as rallies and fatigue set in. Baez’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he will contribute a disproportionate share of the match’s aces, but the surface will blunt that advantage; the expected double faults reflect the likelihood of lapses under fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.0 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alcaraz’s superior Elo, higher clay surface index and freshness give him the clear edge in Monte Carlo despite Baez’s strong serve/return metrics. Key factor to watch: whether Baez’s serving firepower can translate into free points before Alcaraz imposes control from the baseline.

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