Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Corentin Moutet vs Alexandre Muller: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #32
49%
VS

Alexandre Muller

Rank: #94
51%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Alexandre Muller

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #32 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #38 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #69 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #75 2025-04-07

Alexandre Muller

  • Current #94 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #52 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #41 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #39 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 34.5
ELO Rating: 1665.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1674.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.1
Clay: 41.4
Grass: 43.7
Serve Rating: 66.9
Return Rating: 70.3

Alexandre Muller

Form Index: 60.1
ELO Rating: 1647.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 273.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.6
Clay: 42.8
Grass: 40.7
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marco Trungelliti (1-2) clay Marrakech 155 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Taha Baadi (1-0) clay Marrakech 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Miami 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Miami 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Indian Wells 100 min

Alexandre Muller
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 153 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) clay Marrakech 38 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Marrakech 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Federico Cina (2-0) clay Marrakech 70 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Alexandre Muller
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Monte Carlo Masters, round of 64 on clay, Corentin Moutet meets countryman Alexandre Muller in a French intra-week clash. The model slightly favours Muller, 51.27% to Moutet’s 48.73%, with a predicted total of about 23.56 games — a match likely to be decided in fairly tight sets on the slow surface.

Match Analysis

Moutet enters with the higher ranking (No. 32) and a marginally stronger Elo (1665.8 vs 1647.8), but his form index (34.50) trails Muller’s (60.13). Surface strength figures are very close (Moutet 41.43, Muller 42.83), suggesting neither has a pronounced clay advantage on paper. Fatigue is a clear divergence: Moutet shows 0 minutes accumulated in this event, while Muller carries 273 minutes, a consequence of two lengthy wins in Monte Carlo already. Serving and returning numbers split the contest. Muller’s mean serve index (97.80) is markedly higher than Moutet’s (66.94) — a difference big enough to influence short points — and his mean return index (91.68) also comfortably exceeds Moutet’s (70.33). Recent form mirrors those metrics: Moutet’s last three matches include one convincing win and two losses (notably a 155-minute loss in Marrakech), while Muller arrives with two straight clay wins here (including a 153-minute victory) after an earlier loss in Marrakech. The combination of Muller’s higher serve and return indices and his winning sequence in Monte Carlo gives him a narrow edge despite the minutes on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Corentin Moutet - Alexandre Muller) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Alexandre Muller wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the fixture sits at 14.62 total aces and the predicted double faults total at 4.69. On clay, expected aces tend to be suppressed because the slower, higher bounce gives returners more time; this lowers the raw ace opportunity. Given Muller’s substantially higher serve rating, however, he is likely to account for a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, while expected double faults may increase if long rallies and fatigue set in.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.6 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Muller’s edge comes from superior serve and return metrics and recent wins at Monte Carlo; those factors narrowly outweigh Moutet’s higher ranking and slightly better Elo. The key factor to watch is how Muller’s accumulated court time affects his serve efficiency in decisive games.

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