Halle Germany Grass Atp 500 Round of 32

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #118
46%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #81
54%
Expected Total Games: 27.6
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

Why the Model Favors Daniel Altmaier

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.3 Daniel Altmaier
Age +4.1 Daniel Altmaier
Surface fit +2.3 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Overall record & opposition quality +2.0 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Overall strength +1.4 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Daniel Altmaier. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 62.3
ELO Rating: 1688.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 151.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 25.8
Grass: 17.7
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 91.6

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 27.9
ELO Rating: 1525.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.6
Clay: 19.9
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) grass Halle 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Diego Dedura (2-0) grass Halle 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marc-Andrea Huesler (0-2) grass Stuttgart 64 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (1-2) clay Rome 133 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) clay Rome 100 min

Daniel Altmaier

  • Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) grass Stuttgart 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (0-2) clay Hamburg 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (2-1) clay Hamburg 170 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) clay Hamburg 100 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Halle on grass in the round of 32 of this 500-level event, Daniel Altmaier is narrowly favored over Nikoloz Basilashvili. The model gives Altmaier a 53.83% chance to win versus 46.17% for Basilashvili, with an expected total of about 27.6 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Altmaier stems foremost from his recent results against high-level opposition and an age-related advantage — those two factors together tilt the prediction toward him. Altmaier’s recent matches include long, competitive affairs against top players (a 146-minute loss to Frances Tiafoe and a five-seter with Félix Auger‑Aliassime), signals the model treats as valuable experience at a tougher level. Age also nudges the projection in his favor per the explainability output. That said, Basilashvili brings meaningful positives: a higher Elo (1688.8 vs 1525.4) and stronger form index (62.29 vs 27.91), both pushing the model slightly toward him. He also has a better surface strength index on grass (17.74 vs 10.05) and superior return numbers (mean return 91.60 vs 87.26), which could matter on a quick court. Fatigue is a clear contrast—Basilashvili has already spent 151 minutes on court in this tournament, while Altmaier arrives with zero minutes recorded—freshness that the model rewards. Over the last three matches, Basilashvili is 2-1 with two straight wins at Halle; Altmaier is 0-3 in recent outings but those defeats came in physically demanding matches against strong opponents.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.6 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nikoloz Basilashvili - Daniel Altmaier) +0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. Positive values indicate Nikoloz Basilashvili winning more games, negative values indicate Daniel Altmaier winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 16.23 for the contest and the expected double faults are 6.39. Grass typically inflates ace counts because of the low, fast bounce, and both players carry high mean serve indexes (Basilashvili 95.63, Altmaier 95.30), so the predicted aces reflect that surface advantage. With serve ratings nearly identical, neither is expected to dominate ace production solely on serve power, but both should contribute to the predicted aces total; the double faults prediction reflects moderate risk on second serves under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Nikoloz Basilashvili versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nikoloz Basilashvili's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.9%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Nikoloz Basilashvili's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s narrow edge is driven most by the model’s assessment of recent results at a higher competition level. Watch Basilashvili’s freshness and return performance—if his legs hold up after earlier matches, he can flip the match despite the slight model lean toward Altmaier.

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