Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marin Cilic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #7
64%
VS

Marin Cilic

Rank: #54
36%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #7 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #13 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-04-07

Marin Cilic

  • Current #54 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #70 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #94 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #83 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #117 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 39.8
ELO Rating: 1792.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1913.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.1
Clay: 43.7
Grass: 46.9
Serve Rating: 85.0
Return Rating: 57.3

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 64.9
ELO Rating: 1710.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1766.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 87.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.7
Clay: 39.8
Grass: 43.7
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (1-2) hard Miami 113 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) hard Miami 130 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Indian Wells 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Indian Wells 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Indian Wells 136 min

Marin Cilic
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Miami 157 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-1) hard Miami 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Miami 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Indian Wells 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Marin Cilic
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte‑Carlo, Round of 32 — a clay-court Masters 1000 clash in Monaco pits world No. 7 Felix Auger‑Aliassime against veteran Marin Čilić. The model favours Auger‑Aliassime to advance (64.48% win probability) over Čilić (35.52%), with a predicted total of about 24.16 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Auger‑Aliassime arrives as the higher-ranked player (7) with a superior Elo (1792.9) and a stronger surface strength index on clay (43.7) compared with Čilić (rank 54, Elo 1710.8, surface index 39.8). Felix’s form index (39.8) is lower than Čilić’s (64.9), but the Canadian’s serving metrics stand out: a mean serve index of 85.0 versus Čilić’s 97.5 — a notable gap of roughly 12.5 points. On returns the difference is even starker: Auger‑Aliassime 57.3 against Čilić’s 87.8, a margin of about 30.4 points, suggesting Čilić’s return numbers are much stronger on the modelled scale. Recent matches show mixed signals. Auger‑Aliassime has two defeats and one win in his last three outings (losses to Arthur Fils and Terence Atmane, a win over Márton Fucsovics), with matches on hard courts and no tournament minutes logged here (fatigue 0.0). Čilić has shown solid form recently (wins over Shevchenko and Nakashima, a long loss to Zverev), and brings 87 minutes of court time in Monte‑Carlo, which the data records as fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Marin Cilic) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is modest: a predicted aces total of about 9.99 for the match. Expected double faults sit at 5.51. Clay’s slower pace and higher bounce typically reduce ace counts and can increase pressure-related errors, so the predicted aces are suppressed and the expected double faults are elevated. Given Čilić’s higher mean serve index, he could contribute disproportionately to the ace tally in the model’s prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.0 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Auger‑Aliassime’s higher ranking, superior Elo and slightly better clay strength give him the edge despite Čilić’s stronger recent form and serve/return indices. The key factor to watch will be serve effectiveness under fatigue — whoever holds serve more comfortably on clay will likely decide a short match around the predicted 24 games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel