Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Flavio Cobolli vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #13
65%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #87
35%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #13 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #36 2025-04-07

Francisco Comesana

  • Current #87 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #66 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #62 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #65 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 41.0
ELO Rating: 1686.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1733.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.6
Clay: 45.3
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 67.2
Return Rating: 68.2

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 43.8
ELO Rating: 1580.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 163.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.4
Clay: 40.8
Grass: 40.0
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Miami 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) hard Indian Wells 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Indian Wells 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Acapulco 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Acapulco 146 min

Francisco Comesana
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Romain Arneodo (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 62 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Miami 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Indian Wells 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (1-2) clay Santiago 171 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte Carlo, Round of 64 on clay at the Masters 1000 level sets up an intriguing clash between No.13 Flavio Cobolli and No.87 Francisco Comesana. The model favors Cobolli to win (65.37% vs 34.63%) with a predicted match length of about 23.3 games — suggesting a straight-sets finish is likeliest but not certain.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives with the higher ranking (13), superior Elo (1686.5) and a form index of 41.0; he is also completely fresh in this event (0 minutes on court) and carries a surface strength index of 45.3. Comesana sits 87th, with a slightly higher form index (43.8) but a lower Elo (1580.7) and notable cumulative fatigue (163 minutes), accumulated from two wins already in Monte Carlo. The contrast in serving profiles is stark: Comesana’s mean serve index (97.9) exceeds Cobolli’s (67.2) by over 30 points, and his mean return index (91.5) is similarly higher than Cobolli’s (68.2) by about 23 points — both meaningful gaps that will shape rallies. Recent results underline different momentum: Cobolli’s last three matches include one win and two losses on hard courts (a win over Kecmanovic, then defeats to Tiafoe and Collignon), while Comesana has two straight wins on clay here in Monte Carlo (62 and 101 minutes) after a hard-court loss in Miami. Comesana’s clay form at this event is encouraging, but his accumulated minutes contrast with Cobolli’s fresh legs and higher season Elo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Francisco Comesana) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Flavio Cobolli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 15.61 for the match and the expected double faults are 3.8. On clay, the slower surface usually reduces ace frequency and increases chances of mistakes, so the predicted aces reflect that moderation. Given Comesana’s substantially higher serve rating, he is likely to supply a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, while fatigue could push up his double faults — aligning with the expected double faults figure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.6 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s edge comes from higher ranking, stronger Elo and lack of fatigue, combined with a better return profile that can blunt Comesana’s big serve on clay. The key factor to watch is whether Comesana’s serve remains dominant despite his accumulated minutes; if it does, the match could be tighter than the raw probabilities suggest.

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