Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #12
68%
VS

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #85
32%
Expected Total Games: 37.9
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 64.5
ELO Rating: 1871.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1838.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.6
Clay: 36.8
Grass: 29.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 92.4

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 71.5
ELO Rating: 1738.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.0
Clay: 22.1
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Learner Tien (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrea Pellegrino (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) clay Hamburg 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (0-2) clay Rome 78 min

Zachary Svajda

  • Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Adam Walton (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Max Hans Rehberg (0-2) clay Geneva 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Rome 64 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Zachary Svajda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris the round of 16 pits Italy’s Flavio Cobolli against American Zachary Svajda on clay in a Grand Slam setting. The model favors Cobolli to advance (68.23% vs 31.77% for Svajda) with a projected total of roughly 37.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 12) with a superior Elo (1871.35) compared with Svajda (rank 85, Elo 1738.32). His form index is solid at 64.49 while Svajda posts a slightly higher recent form score of 71.48; however Cobolli’s surface strength index (36.84) is noticeably higher than Svajda’s (22.12), an important edge on slow clay. Both carry identical cumulative fatigue logged at 522 minutes in this tournament, so endurance will be equally tested. Cobolli’s mean serve (95.46) and Svajda’s (94.16) are nearly even, but Cobolli holds a clear advantage on return—92.40 versus Svajda’s 86.69—a difference above five points that favors Cobolli’s ability to break serve on clay. Recent match lines underline the contrast in paths: Cobolli has swept his last three opponents in straight sets at Roland Garros, suggesting efficient baseline control and match management. Svajda also boasts three wins to reach this stage, but they were tougher affairs (including a five-set victory over Francisco Cerundolo and two four-setters), indicating resilience but also longer, more draining encounters. Those extended battles may leave Svajda with less freshness despite the equal cumulative minutes recorded.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.9 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Zachary Svajda) +2.2 Most likely spread: +2 (Flavio Cobolli wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. Positive values indicate Flavio Cobolli winning more games, negative values indicate Zachary Svajda winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is modest: the predicted aces total is 15.1, reflecting clay’s tendency to reduce outright winners off the serve. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of about 6.67; longer rallies and accumulated court time on clay often push that number up late in matches. With serve indexes nearly identical, no single player is likely to dominate the ace count despite the solid service metrics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.1 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Zachary Svajda. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (33.8%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Flavio Cobolli's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and notably better return profile on clay underpin the projection that he should progress. The key factor to watch is Cobolli’s return efficiency—if he converts breaks early, the match could tilt decisively in his favor.

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