Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Alexei Popyrin vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #45
33%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #18
67%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #45 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #53 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #40 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-03-31

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #18 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #30 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 37.4
ELO Rating: 1556.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1576.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 229.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.2
Clay: 44.1
Grass: 40.1
Serve Rating: 79.1
Return Rating: 58.0

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 83.9
ELO Rating: 1844.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1867.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 148.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.4
Clay: 44.2
Grass: 42.4
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (1-1) clay Houston 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) clay Houston 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Miami 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Indian Wells 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Dubai 64 min

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) clay Houston 148 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Miami 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-1) hard Miami 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-1) hard Miami 171 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (2-0) hard Miami 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Houston, Texas — a clay court ATP 250 event — brings together Alexei Popyrin and Frances Tiafoe with contrasting profiles. The model favors Tiafoe to advance (66.81%) over Popyrin (33.19%), with a relatively short match expected: about 24.05 total games.

Match Analysis

Tiafoe arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 18) with a strong form index (83.88) and an Elo of 1844.94; Popyrin is No. 45 with a more modest form index (37.41) and an Elo of 1556.74. Fatigue splits are notable: Popyrin has logged 229 minutes in Houston versus Tiafoe’s 148, which could matter late in rallies on demanding clay. Both carry nearly identical surface strength indices (Popyrin 44.07, Tiafoe 44.20), suggesting neither enjoys a pronounced clay advantage on paper. Serve and return metrics tilt heavily toward Tiafoe. His mean serve index (97.19) towers over Popyrin’s (79.06) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.07) similarly eclipses Popyrin’s 57.99 — a double gap that underpins the prediction. Across recent results, Popyrin has shown resilience in Houston with wins over Kypson and Michelsen but was beaten by Cilic in Miami; those matches totaled long court time and contribute to his higher tournament fatigue. Tiafoe’s recent slate includes a hard-fought clay win over Rinky Hijikata and mixed hard-court outings in Miami (a loss to Sinner and a win over Atmane), but his current form index signals sharp play.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Frances Tiafoe) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (Frances Tiafoe wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 16.77 for the match while the expected double faults are 4.47. On clay, predicted aces typically dip because slower, higher-bouncing conditions favor returners and lengthen points; this surface context supports a conservative aces prediction. Given Tiafoe’s markedly higher serve rating, he is likely to supply the bulk of the predicted aces while also being the player most responsible for the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.8 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s edge comes from superior serve and return profiles and a stronger recent form index, offsetting Popyrin’s heavier court time. The key factor to watch will be whether Popyrin’s legs hold up under long rallies and whether Tiafoe can convert his serve advantage into free points early in games.

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