Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev arrives with a higher ranking (10 vs 19), a stronger form index (65.72 to 48.78) and a far superior Elo (2656 vs 1824), all pointing to a class edge. Fatigue is worth noting: Medvedev has logged 124 minutes already in the event compared with Cerundolo’s 84, which could temper his movement late in rallies. Both players show low surface strength indices on hard (Medvedev 17.55, Cerundolo 14.76), suggesting neither has an overwhelming historical advantage on this specific court type. The serving differential is marked — Medvedev’s mean serve index (97.83) outpaces Cerundolo’s (78.13) by nearly 20 points, a gap large enough to influence short, service-dominated sets. Return ability is comparable (both around the high-80s), so breaks will likely hinge on serve potency and second-serve vulnerability rather than pure return talent. Recent form backs this profile. Cerundolo has two wins in his last three, including a straight-sets win over Thiago Tirante in Miami and a marathon victory over Benjamin Bonzi at Indian Wells, with a straight-sets loss to Jack Draper in between. Medvedev’s last three include a gritty three-set win over Rei Sakamoto in Miami, a loss to Jannik Sinner at Indian Wells, and a notable straight-sets win over Carlos Alcaraz earlier in that event. The match durations underline Medvedev’s heavier minutes, which could matter if rallies lengthen.