Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Francisco Cerundolo comes mainly from overall strength (an 8.2 percentage-point advantage) and his better recent form (+3.8 pp), supported by superior Elo and ranking. Cerundolo is seeded higher at 27 (Elo ~1776) versus Brooksby at 73 (Elo ~1496), and his form index (47.45) is well above Brooksby’s (15.77). Those differences underpin the bulk of the projected probability gap. Recent record and quality of opposition also tilt toward Cerundolo (+3.7 pp), reflecting steadier results across comparable opponents. Serve and return considerations add further weight (+3.2 pp to Cerundolo). Both players show similar mean serve indexes near the mid-90s, and neither has a dramatically different serve or return profile on paper; surface strength indices are low for both (Brooksby 17.71, Cerundolo 16.47), signalling neither is a natural grass specialist. Fatigue is comparable—Brooksby has logged 109 minutes this event, Cerundolo 119—so endurance should not be decisive. Over their last three matches Brooksby is 1-2 with a recent grass win over Martin Damm but losses to Zhang and Navone; Cerundolo is 2-1 with wins including Kovacevic and Gaston and a close three-set loss to Svajda.