Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
75%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #81
25%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 44.2
ELO Rating: 1823.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1679.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 15.3
Serve Rating: 78.1
Return Rating: 88.7

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 46.0
ELO Rating: 725.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 429.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.8
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-2) hard Indian Wells 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-1) hard Indian Wells 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (0-2) clay Santiago 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (2-0) clay Santiago 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Elmer Moller (2-0) clay Santiago 70 min

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Miami 204 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Martin Landaluce (1-2) hard Miami 153 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Diego Dedura (2-0) hard Miami 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Francesco Maestrelli (0-2) hard Indian Wells 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Izyan Ahmad (2-0) hard Indian Wells 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
1
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, round of 64 on hard courts, Francisco Cerundolo is narrowly favored to progress. The model gives Cerundolo a 74.76% chance to win versus Thiago Agustin Tirante at 25.24%, with a predicted total of 22.47 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 19) with an Elo of 1823.5 and a strong return profile (mean return index 88.68). His form index (44.22) is comparable to Tirante’s (45.99), but Cerundolo benefits from zero court minutes in this event so far, indicating freshness. His surface strength index (14.76) is modest but superior to Tirante’s 5.79. Tirante, ranked 81 with a much lower Elo (725.76), carries 429 minutes of court time at this tournament and will likely feel the effects of three long matches in Miami. Serve metrics are a notable contrast: Tirante’s mean serve index (97.18) is more than 19 points higher than Cerundolo’s (78.11), a gap worth underscoring and likely to shape service dynamics. Return indexes are similar and do not favor either player by a large margin. Over their last three matches Cerundolo is 1-2, with a hard-court loss to Jack Draper in Indian Wells and a hard-court win over Benjamin Bonzi; his results show some inconsistency. Tirante’s recent Miami run reads 2-1, with two wins and a three-set loss; those matches include marathon encounters totaling substantial minutes, reflected in his fatigue figure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 12.95 total, and the double faults prediction is 4.17 total. On a medium-paced hard court the predicted aces are reasonable — hard courts produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay. Given Tirante’s significantly higher serve rating, predicted aces should skew toward him, while Cerundolo’s steadier serving profile may help keep the expected double faults modest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s superior ranking, higher Elo and freshness give him the edge in this matchup despite Tirante’s booming serve. The key factor to watch will be whether Tirante’s serve produces enough free points to overcome his cumulative fatigue and Cerundolo’s strong return game.

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