Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #72
40%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #19
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #72 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #83 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #78 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #39 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-04-07

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #19 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #24 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #59 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #48 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 24.9
ELO Rating: 1500.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1423.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.9
Clay: 41.4
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 81.9
Return Rating: 49.6

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 32.7
ELO Rating: 1698.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.9
Clay: 44.6
Grass: 42.3
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-2) hard Miami 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Indian Wells 111 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Dubai 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Montpellier 92 min

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marco Trungelliti (0-2) clay Marrakech 130 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) clay Marrakech 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Landaluce (1-2) hard Miami 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (1-2) hard Indian Wells 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-0) clay Santiago 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte Carlo, Round of 64 on the clay courts of Monaco, brings a contrast in styles as Hubert Hurkacz meets Luciano Darderi in this masters 1000 match. The model favors Darderi to progress (60.08%) over Hurkacz (39.92%), with a relatively short match projected — about 23.54 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper Darderi holds the edge: he sits at world No. 19 with an Elo of 1698.04 versus Hurkacz’s No. 72 ranking and 1500.84 Elo. Form indices are modest for both (Hurkacz 24.89, Darderi 32.75) and neither arrives with tournament fatigue (0 minutes on court). Surface strength indices are close (Hurkacz 41.42, Darderi 44.61), so clay familiarity is not a decisive gap by that metric. Serve and return profiles tilt strongly toward Darderi. His mean serve index (97.16) is substantially higher than Hurkacz’s (81.85) — a difference of more than 15 points — and his mean return index (88.04) dwarfs Hurkacz’s 49.59 by roughly 38 points. Those margins suggest Darderi can both hold serve comfortably and pressure Hurkacz’s service games. Recent results underline contrasting momentum: Hurkacz has lost his last three matches (all straight-set defeats on hard courts), while Darderi’s last three show a win in Marrakech flanked by two losses, including a long clay match there.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Luciano Darderi) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Hubert Hurkacz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is modest — the predicted aces total is 8.18 — with a predicted double faults tally of 4.75. Clay tends to suppress serve winners and boost extended exchanges, so the expected double faults may climb as rallies and pressure mount. Darderi’s significantly higher serve rating should push the ace count upward relative to Hurkacz, but the surface will keep overall aces lower than on faster courts.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.2 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s superior Elo, ranking and clear advantages in both serve and return metrics give him the edge in Monaco. Watch how Darderi’s return pressure interacts with Hurkacz’s serve rhythm on slow clay — that battle will likely decide the match.

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