Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Jakub Mensik vs Ethan Quinn: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #18
58%
VS

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #78
42%
Expected Total Games: 39.8
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 2130.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 72.0
Return Rating: 52.7

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 76.5
ELO Rating: 877.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 91.9

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik

  • Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Auckland 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Auckland 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Auckland 65 min

Ethan Quinn

  • Last Match: vs Hubert Hurkacz (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tallon Griekspoor (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) hard Adelaide 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Brisbane 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-1) hard Brisbane 127 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Ethan Quinn
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 32 match at the 2026 Australian Open will feature Jakub Mensik facing off against Ethan Quinn on hard courts. With Mensik ranked 18th and boasting a form index of 100, he is slightly favored to win with a probability of 57.57%, compared to Quinn's 42.43%. The expected total number of games in this matchup is approximately 39.82, indicating a competitive contest.

Match Analysis

Jakub Mensik, ranked 18th in the world, comes into this match with a remarkable form index of 100 and an Elo rating of approximately 2131. His cumulative fatigue is at 348 minutes, reflecting the intensity of his recent matches. Mensik's surface strength index of 15.93 suggests he performs well on hard courts, while his mean serve index of nearly 72 indicates a solid serving capability. Ethan Quinn, on the other hand, is ranked 78th and has a form index of 76.54. His Elo rating is significantly lower at about 878, and he also shares the same fatigue level of 348 minutes. Quinn's surface strength index is notably lower at 8.23, but he possesses a high mean serve index of 96.31, which gives him an edge in serving power. Analyzing their recent performances, both players have shown resilience. Mensik has won his last three matches convincingly, including a straight-sets victory over Rafael Jodar in the last round. Quinn has also been impressive, winning his last two matches without dropping a set against Hubert Hurkacz and Tallon Griekspoor. This creates an intriguing dynamic as both players enter the match with confidence, but Mensik's higher rank and form make him a formidable opponent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.8 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.57 aces, with approximately 4.47 expected double faults, which reflects the balanced nature of hard court play. Given the surface's consistency, both players are likely to capitalize on their serving strengths, although Mensik's slightly lower mean serve index compared to Quinn might result in fewer aces for him. However, Quinn's significant serve rating could lead to a higher ace count, making this a key aspect to watch during the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Jakub Mensik holds the edge due to his higher rank, superior recent form, and overall consistency in performance. The ability to maintain pressure on Quinn's serve will be a critical factor, particularly as both players have demonstrated strong service games. Observing how each player handles high-pressure situations will be crucial in determining the outcome of this competitive encounter.

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