Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #28
44%
VS

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #30
56%
Expected Total Games: 41.2
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

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Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 75.5
ELO Rating: 1911.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1905.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.4
Clay: 38.0
Grass: 21.5
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 90.9

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 78.7
ELO Rating: 1920.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1863.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.6
Clay: 38.9
Grass: 19.8
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik

  • Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Titouan Droguet (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (0-1) clay Hamburg 62 min

Joao Fonseca

  • Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Luka Pavlovic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (1-2) clay Rome 144 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Joao Fonseca
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros quarterfinal in Paris on clay: two heavy-hitting young talents, Jakub Mensik and Joao Fonseca, meet for a place in the semis of the 2026 Grand Slam. The model backs Joao Fonseca to advance (55.90% vs 44.10% for Mensik) with a predicted total of about 41.16 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Mensik (rank 28) and Fonseca (rank 30) arrive with nearly identical tournament workloads—each shows 696 minutes of cumulative court time—so fitness and recovery will be evenly matched on paper. Mensik posts a form index of 75.50 and an Elo of 1911.3, while Fonseca carries a slightly higher form (78.74) and the superior Elo (1920.84). Surface strength indices are similar (Mensik 37.96, Fonseca 38.87), indicating neither has a clear clay-court dominance from the proprietary metrics. Both possess strong serve profiles (mean serve indexes ~95 and ~94) and above-average return numbers, with Mensik’s mean return marginally higher; neither gap exceeds the 5-point threshold for notable disparity. Their runs here have been physically taxing and resilient. Mensik has navigated three tough matches at Roland Garros, including wins over Andrey Rublev (3-2) and Alex de Minaur (2-1), showing aptitude in extended encounters. Fonseca’s stretch is equally impressive: victories over Casper Ruud (3-1) and Novak Djokovic (3-2) highlight his ability to close out big moments. Both players have repeatedly gone the distance this fortnight, suggesting another multi-set affair.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.2 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Joao Fonseca) -1.2 Most likely spread: -2 (Joao Fonseca wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. Positive values indicate Jakub Mensik winning more games, negative values indicate Joao Fonseca winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 17.81 for the match while the expected double faults total is 6.49. On clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce typically suppress ace counts and can elevate expected double faults late in long matches due to fatigue. With no significant serve-rating gap between them, the predicted aces are likely to be shared rather than concentrated with one player; the expected double faults reflect the grind of multiple long matches.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.8 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jakub Mensik versus Joao Fonseca. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.0% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jakub Mensik's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (22.0%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jakub Mensik's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s slight edge comes from a higher Elo and marginally better form over the lead-up, which the model converts into a 55.9% chance to win. Watch the return-versus-serve exchanges and how each handles pressure on serve late in sets—those moments should decide a tight quarterfinal.

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