Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Corentin Moutet vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #33
14%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
86%
Expected Total Games: 22.1
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #33 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #35 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #89 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #76 2025-03-17

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #2 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 35.1
ELO Rating: 1350.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 108.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 65.1
Return Rating: 57.3

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 67.9
ELO Rating: 11244.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2669.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 96.2
Clay: 96.3
Grass: 96.4
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Miami 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Indian Wells 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Acapulco 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Delray Beach 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) hard Miami 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-0) hard Indian Wells 115 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-0) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Indian Wells 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-0) hard Indian Wells 121 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, Round of 32 on hard courts, Jannik Sinner is strongly favoured to progress against Corentin Moutet. The model gives Sinner an 85.59% chance to win versus 14.41% for Moutet, with an expected total of about 22.11 games in the match — pointing toward a straight-sets outcome.

Match Analysis

The contrast on paper is stark. Sinner is world No. 2 with a form index of 67.90, an ELO of 11244.0, and a surface strength index of 96.24; he has logged 70 minutes in this event so far. Moutet is No. 33 with a form index of 35.10, an ELO of 1350.51, a surface strength index of 10.14, and considerably more time on court at 108 minutes. Sinner’s mean serve index (96.81) comfortably exceeds Moutet’s (65.13) by over 30 points, and his mean return index (89.79) similarly outpaces Moutet’s (57.34) by a comparable margin — both differences are material and worth noting. Recent form reinforces that gap. Sinner arrives unbeaten in his last three matches, all straight-set wins at Indian Wells and Miami, and has required relatively little court time in his most recent Miami match (70 minutes). By contrast Moutet has struggled in his last three hard-court outings, dropping straight sets to Alexander Zverev, Aleksandar Kovacevic and Tomas Machac, suggesting he has yet to find consistent rhythm this swing.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.1 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Corentin Moutet - Jannik Sinner) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Jannik Sinner wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this meeting sits at about 10.57 total aces and an expected double faults figure near 4.47. On a medium-paced hard court, that predicted aces total is consistent with a match featuring one dominant server; Sinner’s very high serve index is the primary driver of the predicted aces. The expected double faults are moderate — not unusually high for hard courts — but Moutet’s lower serve index means Sinner is likely to supply a larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sinner’s superior serve, return metrics and recent straight-set form give him a decisive edge in Miami. The key factor to watch will be whether Moutet can hold his serve early and avoid quick breaks; if not, the match should play out quickly in Sinner’s favour.

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