Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Semifinals

Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #22
48%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #31
52%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

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Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 61.3
ELO Rating: 1739.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 333.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 60.4
Clay: 43.8
Grass: 45.6
Serve Rating: 81.9
Return Rating: 41.1

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 88.9
ELO Rating: 1850.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1923.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 253.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 64.3
Clay: 45.2
Grass: 42.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka

  • Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Miami 145 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Miami 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Moise Kouame (2-0) hard Miami 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Indian Wells 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Dubai 112 min

Arthur Fils

  • Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (2-1) hard Miami 133 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (1-0) hard Miami 55 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Darwin Blanch (2-0) hard Miami 65 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Indian Wells 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-0) hard Indian Wells 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jiri Lehecka
vs
1
Arthur Fils
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters 1000 in Florida, the semifinal between Jiri Lehecka and Arthur Fils comes on hard courts, a medium-paced surface that rewards both power and consistent returns. The model favors Arthur Fils narrowly: Fils 51.73%, Lehecka 48.27%, with a projected total of about 24.06 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Lehecka arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 22) but with a lower Elo (1738.96) and a more modest form index (61.35) compared with Fils (rank 31, Elo 1850.46, form 88.91). Fatigue is a factor: Lehecka has logged 333 minutes in Miami versus Fils’ 253, which could matter late in rallies or deciding games. Surface strength is similar—Lehecka 60.40, Fils 64.28—so neither is at a major disadvantage on hard courts. Serve and return metrics strongly favor Fils. His mean serve index (97.70) is substantially higher than Lehecka’s (81.86), a gap large enough to influence free points on serve. The difference in mean return index is even starker—Fils 89.33 to Lehecka 41.06—suggesting Fils poses a much greater threat when receiving. Recent form supports both: Lehecka has won his last three matches in Miami (including a 145-minute win over Taylor Fritz), showing resilience through longer contests. Fils also boasts three straight victories, notably a quick 55-minute match versus Stefanos Tsitsipas and a 133-minute win over Valentin Vacherot, indicating both potency and the ability to close matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Arthur Fils) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Arthur Fils wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. Positive values indicate Jiri Lehecka winning more games, negative values indicate Arthur Fils winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the fixture is 11.18 total, and the double faults prediction is 6.43. On Miami’s hard courts, that level of aces fits a medium-pace profile—enough room for big serves but not the extreme tallies seen on grass. Given Fils’ significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while double faults should remain moderate for both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.2 Most likely: 11 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Fils’ edge comes from higher form, superior Elo and a pronounced advantage on both serve and return metrics, paired with lower accumulated fatigue. The key factor to watch will be Fils’ return pressure and how effectively Lehecka can protect his service games under that duress.

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