Marrakech Morocco Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Kamil Majchrzak: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #69
45%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #53
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Kamil Majchrzak

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Player Metrics

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 43.8
ELO Rating: 1580.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.8
Clay: 43.1
Grass: 40.1
Serve Rating: 71.4
Return Rating: 79.1

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 46.0
ELO Rating: 1642.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1658.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.9
Clay: 37.8
Grass: 43.5
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) hard Indian Wells 162 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cristian Garin (1-2) clay Santiago 141 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Vit Kopriva (0-2) clay Rio 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) clay Rio 169 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Rio 137 min

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Miami 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (2-1) hard Miami 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Miami 118 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (1-2) hard Indian Wells 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) hard Indian Wells 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
vs
0
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Marrakech’s clay-court round of 32 at this 250 event, Kamil Majchrzak is narrowly favored to beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The model gives Majchrzak a 55.17% chance to win versus 44.83% for Cerundolo, with an expected total of about 23.14 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Majchrzak comes in higher in the rankings (53 vs 69) and carries a clear Elo advantage (1642.51 to 1580.27). Form indexes are similar (Majchrzak 46.04, Cerundolo 43.84) and neither player arrives with in-tournament fatigue (0.0 minutes). Cerundolo has a marginally better clay surface strength index (43.12) than Majchrzak (37.83), which slightly favors him on this slow surface. The serving and returning profiles show larger gaps: Majchrzak’s mean serve index (96.95) is substantially higher than Cerundolo’s (71.38), and his mean return index (91.52) also outstrips Cerundolo’s (79.06), differences worth noting when serve and return swings determine tight games. Looking at recent matches, Cerundolo has one win in his last three (a hard-court victory at Indian Wells) and two losses on clay in Santiago and Rio, suggesting uneven recent form on the surface. Majchrzak’s last three are two wins followed by a loss (all on hard courts), showing better recent momentum overall. Both players have enough weaponry to keep rallies long on clay, but Majchrzak’s higher Elo and stronger serving-returning metrics give him the edge in close moments.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Kamil Majchrzak) -1.5 Most likely spread: -2 (Kamil Majchrzak wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. Positive values indicate Juan Manuel Cerundolo winning more games, negative values indicate Kamil Majchrzak winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at a predicted aces total of about 12.5 for the match, while the double faults prediction is around 6.12. Given clay’s slower, higher-bouncing characteristics, expected aces will be suppressed relative to faster surfaces, and expected double faults can creep up as rallies lengthen and pressure rises. Majchrzak’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he’ll be the primary source of aces despite the surface dampening their frequency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.5 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Majchrzak’s combined serving and returning advantage—backed by a higher Elo—explains his narrow projected edge. Watch serve efficiency and how each handles long rallies on clay; breaks of serve in tight games will likely decide the outcome.

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