Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Learner Tien vs Nishesh Basavareddy: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Learner Tien

Rank: #22
65%
VS

Nishesh Basavareddy

Rank: #193
35%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

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Ranking Trends

Learner Tien

  • Current #22 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #28 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #62 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #69 2025-03-31

Nishesh Basavareddy

  • Current #193 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #167 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #113 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #100 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #108 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 1808.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1832.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.3
Clay: 39.4
Grass: 42.5
Serve Rating: 68.0
Return Rating: 70.5

Nishesh Basavareddy

Form Index: 57.3
ELO Rating: 1605.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1650.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 146.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.0
Clay: 37.1
Grass: 39.2
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Learner Tien
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (1-2) hard Miami 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Indian Wells 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) hard Indian Wells 128 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-1) hard Indian Wells 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Indian Wells 104 min

Nishesh Basavareddy
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) clay Houston 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (0-2) hard Miami 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs George Loffhagen (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Learner Tien
vs
0
Nishesh Basavareddy
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Houston, Texas — Round of 16 on clay at a 250-level event. Learner Tien is the clear favorite in this matchup, projected to win with a 65.01% probability to Nishesh Basavareddy’s 34.99%. The model forecasts a relatively short clay affair, with an expected total of 23.61 games.

Match Analysis

Tien arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 22) with an Elo of 1808.75 and a form index of 52.11; he shows no accumulated fatigue in this tournament (0 minutes on court) and a surface strength index of 39.39. Basavareddy is ranked 193 with an Elo of 1605.73 and a slightly stronger recent form index (57.30), but he carries 146 minutes of tournament fatigue and a comparable clay surface strength index of 37.07. There are notable gaps in serving and returning profiles: Basavareddy’s mean serve index (96.71) exceeds Tien’s (68.05) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (88.50) also outstrips Tien’s (70.50) by a large margin. Those splits suggest Basavareddy can produce free points on serve and apply pressure when returning, but his accumulated minutes on court could blunt that edge on slow clay. Over the last three matches Tien has one win (against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) and two recent defeats (Jannik Sinner, Kamil Majchrzak), while Basavareddy reached this round with a hard-fought win in Houston (Liam Draxl) and two earlier losses at hard-court events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Learner Tien - Nishesh Basavareddy) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Learner Tien wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at an expected total of 13.39 and the predicted aces are tempered by the clay surface, which typically reduces serve winners. The expected double faults tally is 7.74; clay’s longer rallies and Basavareddy’s 146 minutes on court increase the likelihood of unforced serving errors. Given Basavareddy’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the majority of the aces prediction, but the surface limits how many will come.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.4 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.7 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tien’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and the freshness he brings give him the edge in this projected win. The key factor to watch will be Basavareddy’s serving effectiveness under fatigue — if his big-serve production holds up, he can turn this into a much tighter contest.

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