Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Moutet arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 32) with a superior Elo (≈1689) compared with Trungelliti (rank 117, Elo ≈1618). Moutet’s recent form index sits at 52.5 and his surface strength on clay is moderate (≈42.1). He has logged 64 minutes on court so far in Marrakech, indicating relatively low cumulative fatigue (64 minutes). Trungelliti posts a stronger form index (≈69.2) and similar clay surface strength (≈39.0), but carries heavy fatigue through the event (415 minutes), after three consecutive wins in Marrakech. Serve and return profiles show clear contrasts: Trungelliti’s mean serve index (≈95.9) and mean return index (≈91.2) are both markedly higher than Moutet’s (serve ≈66.6, return ≈70.3), differences well in excess of 5 points. That gap suggests Trungelliti can produce more free points on serve and be aggressive on return, while Moutet’s edge comes from ranking, Elo and fresher legs. Over their last three matches, Trungelliti has been unbeaten in Marrakech — three straight wins, generally longer matches — whereas Moutet has one recent clay win at this event but mixed results in the warm-up hard-court swing.