Marrakech Morocco Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Henrique Rocha vs Marco Trungelliti: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Henrique Rocha

Rank: #133
48%
VS

Marco Trungelliti

Rank: #117
52%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Marco Trungelliti

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Ranking Trends

Henrique Rocha

  • Current #133 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #158 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #163 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #157 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #203 2025-03-31

Marco Trungelliti

  • Current #117 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #131 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #141 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #149 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #163 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Henrique Rocha

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 1568.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 163.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.3
Clay: 41.2
Grass: 39.9
Serve Rating: 34.9
Return Rating: 53.1

Marco Trungelliti

Form Index: 51.2
ELO Rating: 1579.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 212.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.2
Clay: 38.0
Grass: 39.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 91.4

Recent Matches

Henrique Rocha
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (2-0) clay Marrakech 63 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs David Jorda Sanchis (2-0) clay Marrakech 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (0-2) clay Santiago 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Orlando Luz (2-0) clay Santiago 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marco Trungelliti (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Marco Trungelliti
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) clay Marrakech 123 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hynek Barton (2-0) clay Marrakech 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Nardi (1-2) hard Dubai 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Billy Harris (1-2) hard Doha 141 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Henrique Rocha (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Henrique Rocha
vs
1
Marco Trungelliti
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Marrakech's round of 32 on clay, Henrique Rocha meets Marco Trungelliti in an intriguing matchup at an ATP 250 event. The model leans narrowly toward Trungelliti (52.40%) over Rocha (47.60%), with a predicted total of about 23.06 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rocha arrives ranked 133 with a stronger recent form index (60.19) and an Elo of 1568.1; he has spent 163 minutes on court in this event and posts a modest surface strength of 41.2 on clay. Trungelliti, ranked 117, has a slightly higher Elo (1579.6) but a lower form index (51.24) and greater cumulative fatigue (212 minutes). Both players show comparable clay comfort, though Rocha’s surface index is marginally better. There is a stark contrast in serving and returning profiles: Trungelliti’s mean serve index (95.56) far outstrips Rocha’s (34.86), and his mean return index (91.35) likewise eclipses Rocha’s (53.08), differences worth flagging for how points will be constructed. Over their last three matches at this event, Rocha is carrying two straight wins in Marrakech after a loss in Santiago, while Trungelliti has also won twice here following a prior loss in Dubai. Rocha’s recent results suggest sharper form; Trungelliti’s heavier minutes point to potential wear.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Henrique Rocha - Marco Trungelliti) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Marco Trungelliti wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 15.07 for the match, while the expected double faults total is roughly 5.96. On clay, lower predicted aces are typical because the slower, higher-bouncing surface reduces outright service winners; this expected aces number reflects that. Given Trungelliti’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to account for a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, though his accumulated fatigue could contribute to the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.1 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Trungelliti’s edge comes from superior serve and return indices and a marginally higher Elo, despite being more fatigued and having lower recent form. The key factor to watch is whether his big-serving profile can overcome the clay conditions and fatigue; if it does, he should close out the tight affair.

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