Marrakech Morocco Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Marco Trungelliti vs Kamil Majchrzak: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marco Trungelliti

Rank: #117
32%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #53
68%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Kamil Majchrzak

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Player Metrics

Marco Trungelliti

Form Index: 64.7
ELO Rating: 1595.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1634.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 308.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.3
Clay: 38.5
Grass: 39.9
Serve Rating: 52.1
Return Rating: 73.4

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 64.3
ELO Rating: 1650.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1678.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 154.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.9
Clay: 38.4
Grass: 43.5
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Marco Trungelliti

  • Last Match: vs Henrique Rocha (2-0) clay Marrakech 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) clay Marrakech 123 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Hynek Barton (2-0) clay Marrakech 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (1-2) hard Dubai 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Billy Harris (1-2) hard Doha 141 min

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Last Match: vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-1) clay Marrakech 154 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Miami 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (2-1) hard Miami 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) hard Miami 118 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (1-2) hard Indian Wells 132 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marco Trungelliti
vs
2
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Marrakech, Morocco, the round-of-16 at this 250-level clay event pits Marco Trungelliti against Kamil Majchrzak. The model favors Kamil Majchrzak to win (68.25%) while Marco Trungelliti has a 31.75% chance; the match is expected to produce about 23.61 games.

Match Analysis

Majchrzak arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 53) against Trungelliti (No. 117), and the Elo gap (1650.66 vs 1594.96) also favors Majchrzak. Both players show similar form indices (Trungelliti 64.73, Majchrzak 64.27) and nearly identical surface strength scores (~38.5), so recent sharpness looks comparable. Fatigue, however, is a major differentiator: Trungelliti has logged 308 minutes in the tournament compared with Majchrzak’s 154, and those extra minutes could matter in long clay rallies. Serve and return profiles tilt heavily to Majchrzak. His mean serve index (96.99) dwarfs Trungelliti’s (52.12) by a wide margin, and his mean return index (91.48) is also substantially higher than Trungelliti’s (73.43). That combination suggests Majchrzak can both hold serve comfortably and pressure Trungelliti’s service games. Over their last three matches, Trungelliti has been unbeaten in Marrakech, dispatching three opponents in straight sets but accumulating long minutes (matches of 89, 96 and 123 minutes). Majchrzak is 2-1 in his most recent three, including a taxing 154-minute win on clay and a couple of tougher, three-set affairs on hard courts earlier in the season.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marco Trungelliti - Kamil Majchrzak) +3.7 Most likely spread: +4 (Marco Trungelliti wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. Positive values indicate Marco Trungelliti winning more games, negative values indicate Kamil Majchrzak winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modest: predicted aces total 12.33, and the double faults prediction sits at about 6.95. On clay, fewer free points are typical—the expected double faults may creep up as rallies and fatigue lengthen. Given Majchrzak’s much higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute most of the predicted aces despite the surface dampening outright pace.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.3 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 7.0 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Marco Trungelliti versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Majchrzak’s superior serve and return metrics, higher ranking and cleaner minutes in the event give him the edge. Watch how Trungelliti’s accumulated fatigue holds up against Majchrzak’s big-serving patterns; that will likely decide whether this stays short or turns into a physical, extended contest.

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