Bucharest Romania Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Elmer Moller vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Elmer Moller

Rank: #134
37%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #60
63%
Expected Total Games: 22.3
Predicted Winner: Mariano Navone

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Ranking Trends

Elmer Moller

  • Current #134 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #120 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #122 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #117 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #139 2025-03-31

Mariano Navone

  • Current #60 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #75 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #86 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #91 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Elmer Moller

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 1557.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 100.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.8
Clay: 39.4
Grass: 39.4
Serve Rating: 36.3
Return Rating: 77.8

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 44.2
ELO Rating: 1536.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 120.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.7
Clay: 42.1
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 93.1

Recent Matches

Elmer Moller
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Boitan (2-0) clay Bucharest 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Santiago 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-1) clay Santiago 145 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francesco Passaro (0-2) clay Rio 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Elias Ymer (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Mariano Navone
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) clay Bucharest 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Miami 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-0) hard Miami 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (1-2) hard Indian Wells 140 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) clay Santiago 146 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Elmer Moller
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Bucharest round of 16 on clay, Mariano Navone is forecast to beat Elmer Moller in this ATP 250-level event in Romania. The model gives Navone a 62.70% chance to win versus Moller's 37.30%, with an expected total of about 22.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is intriguing: Navone arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 60 to Moller's 134) but the Elo ratings are close (Moller 1557.3, Navone 1536.4). Form indices are similar (Moller 46.6, Navone 44.2), while surface strength slightly favors Navone (42.1 vs 39.4). Fatigue is a factor — Navone has logged 120 minutes in the event so far versus Moller's 100 — which could matter in long rallies on clay. There is a stark contrast in serving and returning profiles. Navone's mean serve index (97.17) massively outstrips Moller's (36.33), and his mean return index (93.11) also exceeds Moller's (77.77); both differences are well over five points and likely to shape the match. Recent form shows both players capable of three-set battles: Moller has two wins and a loss in his last three (including a straight-sets win over Adrian Boitan in Bucharest and a long 145-minute win in Santiago), while Navone is 2-1 with a straight-sets win over Christopher O'Connell in Bucharest and a big win over Basilashvili in Miami.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Elmer Moller - Mariano Navone) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Elmer Moller wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is modest: the match has a predicted aces total of about 10.59, and the predicted double faults are roughly 5.82. On clay, slower speed and higher bounce usually lower ace counts and can increase pressure-serving errors, so the expected double faults number is consistent with the surface. Navone’s markedly higher serve index suggests he will contribute the bulk of the predicted aces and could tilt service games in his favor despite the clay court conditions.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Navone’s combination of superior ranking and dominant serve/return metrics gives him the edge, even with slightly greater fatigue and a near-equal Elo. Watch Navone’s serve effectiveness and how Moller handles returns early — break-point conversion and endurance in extended rallies will likely decide the tie.

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