Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #134
35%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #61
65%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Mariano Navone

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Ranking Trends

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #134 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #109 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #114 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #125 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #144 2025-03-17

Mariano Navone

  • Current #61 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #72 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #82 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #90 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #62 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 40.7
ELO Rating: 491.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1518.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 117.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 67.2
Return Rating: 52.1

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 21.9
ELO Rating: 722.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.8
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 93.3

Recent Matches

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-0) hard Miami 62 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-0) hard Miami 55 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Christopher O'Connell (0-2) hard Indian Wells 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Mejia (1-1) hard Indian Wells 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (0-2) hard Dubai 77 min

Mariano Navone
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (1-2) hard Indian Wells 140 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) clay Santiago 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-1) clay Santiago 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Rio 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 122 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Miami on the outdoor hard courts, Round of 128 action pits veteran Nikoloz Basilashvili against Mariano Navone in a Masters 1000 opening match. The model favors Navone to advance (64.59% chance) over Basilashvili (35.41%), with a predicted total of about 23.6 games in what looks set to be a relatively short encounter.

Match Analysis

Navone arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 61) with a substantially stronger Elo (722.53) than Basilashvili (Rank 134, Elo 490.96). Despite a lower form index (21.93 vs Basilashvili’s 40.65), Navone’s serve and return metrics dominate: his mean serve index (97.09) and mean return index (93.30) both exceed Basilashvili’s figures (serve 67.22, return 52.09) by wide margins. That gap—well over 5 points on both serve and return—suggests Navone can both generate free points and consistently pressure Basilashvili’s service games. Surface strength indices are low for both, but Navone’s 5.78 edges Basilashvili’s 2.73. Basilashvili has momentum from two quick wins in Miami, dispatching Sho Shimabukuro (62 minutes) and Patrick Kypson (55 minutes) after a loss at Indian Wells to Christopher O’Connell. Those shorter recent matches have added 117 minutes of court time, so fatigue (117 minutes accumulated) is a factor compared to Navone’s zero minutes logged in this event. Navone’s recent form shows more mixed results: a win at Santiago and back-to-back three-set defeats (Santiago and Indian Wells), including a lengthy 140-minute match in California, indicating resilience in longer battles but fewer comfortable victories on hard courts lately.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nikoloz Basilashvili - Mariano Navone) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Mariano Navone wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction points to around 10.06 total aces in the match and a double faults prediction of roughly 5.63. On Miami’s medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces should be moderate; the surface neither inflates nor suppresses big-serving numbers dramatically. Because Navone’s mean serve index is markedly higher, expect him to contribute the bulk of the aces, which will influence the overall expected double faults as both players balance aggression and margin.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Navone’s superior serve/return metrics and higher Elo give him the edge, especially against a Basilashvili side showing accumulated minutes in Miami. The key factor to watch is whether Basilashvili’s serve holds up under pressure from Navone’s return game—if not, the match could be decided quickly.

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