Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Martin Landaluce vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #151
32%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #15
68%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Ranking Trends

Martin Landaluce

  • Current #151 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #134 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #139 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #147 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #146 2025-03-17

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #15 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #18 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #10 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 54.0
ELO Rating: 589.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 474.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 3.6
Serve Rating: 51.5
Return Rating: 49.8

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 45.6
ELO Rating: 1830.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1727.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.7
Clay: 18.2
Grass: 19.6
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Martin Landaluce
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) hard Miami 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-0) hard Miami 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) hard Miami 153 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Miami 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sho Shimabukuro (1-2) hard Indian Wells 164 min

Karen Khachanov
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) hard Miami 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (1-2) hard Indian Wells 135 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Dubai 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-1) hard Dubai 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) hard Doha 146 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Martin Landaluce
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters 1000 in Florida, Round of 32 on hard courts, Karen Khachanov is the clear favorite against Martin Landaluce. The model projects Khachanov to win with a 67.51% chance versus 32.49% for Landaluce, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 24.23 total games.

Match Analysis

The matchup lines up as experience and firepower versus recent momentum. Landaluce (rank 151) arrives with a higher form index (53.97) than Khachanov (45.58) and has accumulated heavy court time this event (474 minutes), which suggests match sharpness but also fatigue. His Elo (589.16) and surface strength index (4.52) remain low compared with Khachanov’s Elo (1830.56) and surface strength (11.69). Khachanov (rank 15) shows a decisive advantage in serving and returning: his mean serve index (97.58) exceeds Landaluce’s (51.52) by well over 5 points, and his mean return index (89.60) similarly dwarfs Landaluce’s (49.78). That gap is likely to shape rallies and hold percentages. Recent form tells a complementary story. Landaluce has won three straight matches in Miami, defeating Tirante, Giron and Darderi in matches that were long and physically demanding (match times of 153, 98 and 143 minutes). Khachanov’s recent results are mixed: a straight-sets victory over Roberto Bautista Agut in this event (73 minutes) contrasts with earlier losses at Indian Wells and Dubai. His lighter tournament fatigue (73 minutes) should leave him fresher for this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Martin Landaluce - Karen Khachanov) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Martin Landaluce wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is substantial — the model’s predicted aces total is roughly 15.91 — and the expected double faults sit at about 5.94. On medium-paced hard courts, these predicted aces are consistent with a big server producing a steady stream of free points; the double faults prediction reflects some risk when players look to keep points short. Given Khachanov’s far superior serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s superior Elo, far stronger serve and return indices, and low fatigue give him the edge in Miami. The key factor to watch is whether Landaluce’s recent heavy minutes blunt his movement and serve effectiveness against Khachanov’s power game.

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