S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #96
47%
VS

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #75
53%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Marton Fucsovics

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #96 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #71 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #73 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-06-09

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current #75 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #56 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #55 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #59 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #112 2025-06-09

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 1596.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1603.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 22.1
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.3

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 23.6
ELO Rating: 1539.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.9
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (1-2) clay Rome 139 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Madrid 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (2-0) clay Madrid 73 min

Marton Fucsovics
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Berrettini (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) clay Rome 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2) clay Madrid 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Miami 130 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Marton Fucsovics
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At s'Hertogenbosch in the Netherlands, a Round of 32 clash on fast grass pits Hubert Hurkacz against Marton Fucsovics in this 250-level event. The model gives Fucsovics the narrow edge — 52.96% to Hurkacz’s 47.04% — with a predicted total of about 25.17 games, suggesting a straight-sets finish is slightly more likely than a long three-setter.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz arrives ranked 96 with a solid form index (32.63) and the higher Elo (1596.25). His surface strength index is modest (11.73) but his mean serve index is elite (96.28), and he shows strong return numbers (87.29). Fatigue is negligible for him coming into the match. Fucsovics is ranked 75, with a lower form index (23.63) and an Elo of 1539.17. His surface strength index (18.86) is a touch higher than Hurkacz’s, and his serve (94.59) and return (87.86) profiles are closely matched to his opponent. Neither player's mean serve or return index differs by more than five points, so service/return edges are marginal on paper. Recent matches have been played on clay for both. Hurkacz’s last three outings show one win (against Jaume Munar) and two losses, including a five-set match against Frances Tiafoe and a three-set loss in Rome, indicating experience in long contests. Fucsovics has struggled recently with three straight defeats in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros, without a win in those three matches; match lengths suggest he’s been tested but not finding form. Both arrive with zero tournament minutes on grass, so early-match adaptation will matter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Marton Fucsovics) +0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This grass match yields a healthy aces prediction: expected total aces for the match are 14.82, reflecting the surface’s boost to serving. The expected double faults are 4.82, a moderate number given both players’ strong serve indices. Given the similar serve ratings, neither player dominates the ace count outright, but the predicted aces and double faults suggest service holds will be central early on.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.8 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fucsovics’s slight edge comes from a higher ranking and marginally better surface strength despite Hurkacz’s superior Elo and elite serve. The key factor to watch is the opening service games — early breaks or holds will likely decide a compact match on this quick grass court.

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