Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #54
32%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #107
68%
Expected Total Games: 42.9
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Player Metrics

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 69.0
ELO Rating: 1778.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 35.0
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 95.0

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 63.2
ELO Rating: 1724.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1703.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.6
Clay: 26.3
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 83.4

Recent Matches

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Last Match: vs Martin Landaluce (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Cristian Garin (0-2) clay Rome 134 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Madrid 78 min

Matteo Berrettini

  • Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marton Fucsovics (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (0-2) clay Rome 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) clay Madrid 99 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, the men’s round of 16 on clay sets up an intriguing contrast between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Matteo Berrettini in this Grand Slam match. The model favors Matteo Berrettini to advance with a 68.43% probability versus 31.57% for Cerundolo, and projects a moderately long match of about 42.93 total games.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives ranked 54 with a form index of 68.97 and an Elo of 1778.01. His surface strength index on clay is 35.03 and his mean serve and return indices are both extremely high (95.47 and 94.99 respectively), marking him as a strong all-court performer in this data set. Berrettini, listed at rank 107, posts a form index of 63.20 and an Elo of 1724.65; his surface strength index is lower at 26.27 while his mean serve index is very similar to Cerundolo’s at 95.96. Both players show identical cumulative fatigue from the tournament (522 minutes), so physical wear should be a shared factor on the slow Paris clay. A notable matchup element is return strength: Cerundolo’s mean return index (94.99) exceeds Berrettini’s (83.36) by more than 11 points, suggesting Cerundolo will be more dangerous on return games. Over their last three matches here, both have progressed unbeaten: Cerundolo recorded three straight wins (including a five-set win over Jannik Sinner and a straight-sets opener), while Berrettini also won his three matches in Paris, mixing a five-set victory and two shorter wins. Both players have shown consistency through the opening rounds.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.9 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Matteo Berrettini) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Matteo Berrettini wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. Positive values indicate Juan Manuel Cerundolo winning more games, negative values indicate Matteo Berrettini winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 16.52 total, while the expected double faults are 8.83. On clay, predicted aces tend to be suppressed because the slower surface and higher bounce reduce outright service winners; conversely, expected double faults can rise as longer rallies and tournament fatigue set in. Neither player has a markedly superior serve index here, so the predicted aces count reflects two heavy servers whose big serves will be somewhat neutralized by the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 8.8 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.0% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Juan Manuel Cerundolo's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (30.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Juan Manuel Cerundolo's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s edge in the forecast (68.43%) comes from the combined model factors despite Cerundolo’s superior return numbers and higher ranking. The key factor to watch will be Cerundolo’s ability to convert break chances against Berrettini’s serve—if he does, the match could tighten well beyond the projected game total.

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