Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Nishesh Basavareddy vs Liam Draxl: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nishesh Basavareddy

Rank: #193
50%
VS

Liam Draxl

Rank: #147
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Nishesh Basavareddy

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Ranking Trends

Nishesh Basavareddy

  • Current #193 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #167 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #113 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #100 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #108 2025-03-31

Liam Draxl

  • Current #147 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #133 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #119 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #147 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #178 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Nishesh Basavareddy

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1592.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1605.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.2
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 39.2
Serve Rating: 63.7
Return Rating: 60.7

Liam Draxl

Form Index: 61.2
ELO Rating: 1613.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1648.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 317.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.6
Clay: 38.5
Grass: 39.0
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 90.9

Recent Matches

Nishesh Basavareddy
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (0-2) hard Miami 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs George Loffhagen (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Liam Draxl
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexis Galarneau (2-1) clay Houston 162 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mitchell Krueger (2-1) clay Houston 155 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (1-2) hard Miami 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jay Clarke (2-1) hard Miami 156 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (2-1) hard Miami 149 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nishesh Basavareddy
vs
0
Liam Draxl
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clash in Houston, TX is a 250-level clay-court match between Nishesh Basavareddy and Liam Draxl. The model gives Basavareddy a narrow edge — predicted winner Nishesh Basavareddy (50.29%) over Liam Draxl (49.71%) — with an expected total of 23.55 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Basavareddy (rank 193) arrives with an Elo of 1592 and a form index of 41.7; his surface strength sits at 36.6 and he shows no accumulated fatigue in this event. Draxl (rank 147) carries a slightly higher Elo (1613.7) and a markedly stronger form index of 61.2, but comes into the match with 317 minutes on court this week. Both players project similar comfort on clay (surface strength 36.6 vs 38.5). There is a clear gap in serving and returning metrics: Draxl’s mean serve index (96.09) outstrips Basavareddy’s (63.72) by more than 30 points, and his mean return index (90.86) is likewise substantially higher than Basavareddy’s (60.70). Over the last three outings, Basavareddy’s results show one win (a five-set Australian Open victory over Christopher O’Connell) and two straight losses to Karen Khachanov and Tomas Barrios Vera, both on hard courts and long matches. Draxl is coming off two clay wins in Houston (tight 2–1 victories over Mitchell Krueger and Alexis Galarneau) after a three-set loss to Quentin Halys in Miami; his recent match durations (155–162 minutes) explain the fatigue figure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nishesh Basavareddy - Liam Draxl) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Liam Draxl wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.86 total, while the predicted double faults sit at an expected double faults figure of 6.27. On clay, the slower surface typically suppresses ace counts and can increase unforced serving errors late in long rallies — that context tempers the raw serve numbers. Given Draxl’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, but the surface and his accumulated minutes may blunt that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Basavareddy’s slight edge in the model stems from freshness and a tight overall projection despite Draxl’s superior serve/return metrics and recent match wins. Watch how Draxl’s serve holds up under clay conditions and whether fatigue opens the door to break opportunities — that will decide the match.

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