Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nuno Borges

Rank: #50
39%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #47
61%
Expected Total Games: 41.0
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

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Ranking Trends

Nuno Borges

  • Current #50 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #48 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #47 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #41 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #41 2025-05-26

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #47 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #84 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #52 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #42 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1646.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 23.4
Grass: 17.8
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 91.2

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1620.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.2
Clay: 14.1
Grass: 17.2
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Nuno Borges
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Rome 61 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) clay Madrid 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) clay Barcelona 94 min

Miomir Kecmanovic
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) clay Rome 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) clay Rome 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) clay Munich 138 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nuno Borges
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 64 on clay, Miomir Kecmanovic is narrowly favored to progress in this Grand Slam clash. The projection gives Kecmanovic a 61.29% chance to win against Nuno Borges (38.71%), with an expected total of about 41.01 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the pair are closely matched. Borges sits at No. 50 with an Elo of 1646.84 and a form index of 45.41, while Kecmanovic is No. 47 with a slightly lower Elo of 1620.47 and a form index of 44.95. Both arrive with identical cumulative fatigue in the current tournament (174 minutes on court). Their clay-specific strength indices are modest—Borges 23.43 versus Kecmanovic 14.14—so neither profile reads as a clay specialist by these measures. Serving and returning numbers paint a picture of two all-court players with similar weapons: Borges posts a mean serve index of 95.83 and a mean return index of 91.16; Kecmanovic’s serve and return indices are 95.10 and 87.52 respectively. Recent form is mixed but consistent: both opened Roland Garros with straight-set wins (each 3-0, 174 minutes), and both followed a split set of results in Rome—each had one victory and one loss in the lead-up. Those results underline comparable short-term form and fitness heading into this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.0 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nuno Borges - Miomir Kecmanovic) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Miomir Kecmanovic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay matchup is moderate — the predicted aces total is 14.79 — reflecting the slow surface that tends to suppress free points. The predicted aces figure and the expected double faults (7.11) are consistent with clay’s higher-bounce, longer-rally profile: fewer aces and a non-negligible expected double faults tally. Neither player has a significantly superior serve rating, so the predicted aces count should be shared across service holds rather than dominated by one big server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.8 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.1 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nuno Borges's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (29.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s edge comes from a slightly higher ranking, a clean opening-round scoreline at Roland Garros, and the projection favoring him 61.29% to advance. The decisive factor to watch will be Borges’ return game and whether it can convert break opportunities against two very similar servers on a slow clay court.

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