Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #85
50%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #102
50%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Aleksandar Kovacevic

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Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #85 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #60 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #76 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #79 2025-03-31

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current #102 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #113 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #114 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #87 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #82 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 44.3
ELO Rating: 1593.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1645.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 38.4
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 86.8
Return Rating: 55.9

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 56.7
ELO Rating: 1688.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1722.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.6
Clay: 36.0
Grass: 40.3
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Kovacevic
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Rei Sakamoto (1-2) hard Miami 179 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (1-2) hard Indian Wells 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Indian Wells 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) hard Indian Wells 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Acapulco 138 min

Rinky Hijikata
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Adam Walton (1-2) hard Miami 144 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dane Sweeny (2-0) hard Miami 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Indian Wells 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (2-1) hard Indian Wells 155 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) hard Indian Wells 128 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
vs
0
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Houston ATP 250 in Texas, Aleksandar Kovacevic meets Rinky Hijikata in a Round of 32 match on clay. The model gives Kovacevic a razor‑thin edge — 50.13% to Hijikata’s 49.87% — with an expected total of about 24.42 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kovacevic comes in ranked 85 with a form index of 44.3 and an Elo of 1593.1; his surface strength for clay is 38.44 and his mean serve index is a strong 86.77. Hijikata is ranked 102 but posts a higher form index (56.70) and a superior Elo (1688.6); his surface strength is 35.97. The serving and returning gap is notable: Hijikata’s mean serve index (97.50) is more than 10 points higher than Kovacevic’s, and his mean return index (91.30) exceeds Kovacevic’s by roughly 35 points — both differences well beyond the 5‑point threshold and central to the matchup. Recent results show parity in outcomes. Kovacevic is 1–2 over his last three matches, beating Corentin Moutet but falling to Novak Djokovic and Rei Sakamoto in long hard‑court contests; his match durations included a 179‑minute contest in Miami. Hijikata is also 1–2 in his last three, with a straight‑sets win over Dane Sweeny and losses to Cameron Norrie and Adam Walton, all on hard courts. Both arrive with zero cumulative tournament fatigue recorded here.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Aleksandar Kovacevic - Rinky Hijikata) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 15.78 for the match and the expected double faults are 5.48. On clay, predicted aces tend to be suppressed because the slower surface and higher bounce give returners more time, so the predicted aces are moderate. Given Hijikata’s significantly higher serve rating, he is the likeliest source of the bulk of those aces, while the expected double faults reflect clay’s tendency toward more errors under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kovacevic’s slight edge in the model is driven by his higher ranking, solid serve index and a marginally better clay strength, but this is a near‑coinflip. The key factor to watch is the serve/return duel — if Hijikata’s superior return game imposes pressure, the match could swing the other way.

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