Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Lehecka comes mainly from recent performances by level and his overall strength: recent record by level contributes +10.3 percentage points and overall strength adds +4.6 toward Lehecka. That aligns with the numbers — Lehecka’s Elo (1808.5) and world ranking (12) sit well above Hijikata’s Elo (1673.5) and rank (104), indicating the higher-class results expected in tight moments. Serve & return game (+4.3 toward Lehecka) also matters: while their mean serve indices are essentially identical (Lehecka 96.05 vs Hijikata 95.90), Hijikata’s mean return index (93.62) is notably higher than Lehecka’s (84.60), a difference worth watching though the model still favors Lehecka overall. Surface fit (+2.9 toward Lehecka) and overall record against quality opponents (+1.9) further tilt the scales; Lehecka’s higher surface strength index (28.55 vs Hijikata’s 14.06) and cleaner recent results at higher-level events support that margin. Fatigue is a factor: Hijikata has accumulated 349 minutes on court this week versus Lehecka’s 112, which could blunt Hijikata’s power late. Form indices show Hijikata with a slightly higher form index (52.9 vs 46.4), and recent match logs show Hijikata arriving in fine playing rhythm with three wins in London; Lehecka is 2-1 across his last three, including a straight-sets win here and a tight loss to Ben Shelton on grass.