Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Adam Walton: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #77
35%
VS

Adam Walton

Rank: #105
65%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Adam Walton

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Ranking Trends

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Current #77 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #105 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #130 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #132 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #138 2025-03-31

Adam Walton

  • Current #105 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #78 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #90 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #85 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1505.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1489.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.9
Clay: 39.4
Grass: 40.4
Serve Rating: 59.6
Return Rating: 87.1

Adam Walton

Form Index: 62.3
ELO Rating: 1641.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1639.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.2
Clay: 39.8
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Roman Andres Burruchaga
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (1-2) hard Miami 158 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (1-2) hard Indian Wells 156 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Moez Echargui (2-1) hard Indian Wells 196 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Elmer Moller (1-2) clay Santiago 145 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (0-2) clay Rio 88 min

Adam Walton
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (1-2) hard Miami 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Miami 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) hard Miami 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Chris Rodesch (2-0) hard Miami 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Indian Wells 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
vs
0
Adam Walton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay matchup in Houston, Texas (an ATP 250 event) pits Roman Andres Burruchaga against Adam Walton. The model favors Walton, projecting a 64.70% chance of victory to Burruchaga’s 35.30%, with a predicted total of about 23.07 games in the match. Expect a relatively short, tactical clay duel rather than a long baseline marathon.

Match Analysis

Burruchaga arrives ranked 77 with an Elo of 1505.6 and a form index of 41.7; his surface strength index on clay sits at 39.35 and he shows a strong return profile (mean return 87.12). He has no accumulated fatigue in this event. Walton, ranked 105, carries a higher Elo (1641.6) and a stronger form index (62.28); his clay surface strength is similar at 39.83 but his mean serve index (98.12) towers over Burruchaga’s (59.63) by a wide margin — this serve gap is a major matchup factor. Their return indices are comparable and within five points, so returns are unlikely to be the decisive contrast. Recent form favors Walton — he won two of his last three matches (including a straight-sets win over Sebastian Baez) and fell in a three-set match in his most recent outing. Burruchaga has one win in his last three, with two tight three-set losses at big events; those matches were long and on hard courts, so they reflect resilience but not surface-specific form on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roman Andres Burruchaga - Adam Walton) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Adam Walton wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 8.6 total, while the predicted double faults tally is roughly 6.44. On clay, aces tend to be suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, so the expected aces are modest. Given Walton’s significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces will likely be concentrated on his serve, while expected double faults could rise slightly if longer rallies and fatigue set in.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.6 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Walton’s superior Elo and markedly better serve give him the edge on paper, especially on quick service points even on clay. The key factor to watch is whether Burruchaga can neutralize Walton’s serve with aggressive returning and early ball pressure; if he does, the upset becomes more plausible.

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