Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Brandon Nakashima: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #77
24%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
76%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

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Ranking Trends

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Current #77 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #105 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #130 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #132 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #138 2025-03-31

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #33 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #35 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #32 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1530.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 85.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.2
Clay: 39.8
Grass: 40.4
Serve Rating: 60.7
Return Rating: 87.7

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 1672.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.8
Clay: 40.2
Grass: 43.8
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Roman Andres Burruchaga
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) clay Houston 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (1-2) hard Miami 158 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (1-2) hard Indian Wells 156 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Moez Echargui (2-1) hard Indian Wells 196 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Elmer Moller (1-2) clay Santiago 145 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (2-0) clay Houston 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (1-2) hard Miami 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Indian Wells 151 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Indian Wells 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Acapulco 171 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 action in Houston (TX) on clay pits Roman Andres Burruchaga against Brandon Nakashima in an ATP 250-level setting. The model favors Nakashima to advance — 75.96% chance — with Burruchaga at 24.04%; the match is expected to produce about 23.27 games in total.

Match Analysis

Nakashima arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 33) with a stronger Elo (1672.27) than Burruchaga (rank 77, Elo 1530.35). Form indices are modest for both — Nakashima 51.76, Burruchaga 44.96 — and both show similar surface strength on clay (40.17 vs 39.78), suggesting neither is markedly more comfortable on this surface. Fatigue is notable: Burruchaga has 85 minutes on court in the event, Nakashima 91 minutes, so physical freshness could be a factor late in rallies. There is a pronounced serving gap: Nakashima’s mean serve index (98.61) dwarfs Burruchaga’s 60.70 — a difference well above five points and likely to shape many service holds. Mean return indices are close (Burruchaga 87.75, Nakashima 86.81), so return capability won’t produce a large swing by itself. Recent form shows both winning their Houston openers — Burruchaga beat Adam Walton in two sets (85 minutes), Nakashima dismissed Martin Damm in two (91 minutes) — while each had tougher losses at hard-court events prior to this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roman Andres Burruchaga - Brandon Nakashima) -3.3 Most likely spread: -4 (Brandon Nakashima wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 9.46 for the match while the expected double faults are 4.33. On clay, the slower ball and higher bounce typically reduce ace counts, so the predicted aces reflect a tempered total despite Nakashima’s huge serve rating. Given Nakashima’s significantly higher serve index, predicted aces skew toward him, but the surface tempers that advantage; the double faults prediction also accounts for accumulated fatigue and longer rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.5 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Nakashima’s clear serving edge and superior Elo give him the projected advantage on clay in Houston. Watch his serve efficiency and how Burruchaga’s strong return numbers try to neutralize that weapon — that matchup will decide the match flow.

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