Stuttgart Germany Grass Atp 250 Round of 16

Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #104
56%
VS

Nick Kyrgios

Rank: #1000
44%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Sho Shimabukuro

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Ranking Trends

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current #104 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #113 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #147 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #223 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #192 2025-06-09

Nick Kyrgios

  • Current #1000 None
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 55.8
ELO Rating: 1625.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1707.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 210.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.8
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 89.2

Nick Kyrgios

Form Index: 32.5
ELO Rating: 1507.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 68.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Sho Shimabukuro
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) grass Stuttgart 56 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jurij Rodionov (2-0) grass Stuttgart 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Sakellaridis (2-0) grass Stuttgart 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (0-2) hard Miami 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Bolt (2-1) hard Miami 124 min

Nick Kyrgios
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) grass Stuttgart 68 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Brisbane 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-2) hard Miami 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-1) hard Miami 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Indian Wells 83 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sho Shimabukuro
vs
0
Nick Kyrgios
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart, Germany — round of 16 on grass at an ATP 250 event sets up an intriguing clash between Sho Shimabukuro and Nick Kyrgios. The model gives Sho Shimabukuro the edge, with a 55.92% chance to win against Kyrgios’s 44.08%, and a predicted total of about 22.42 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Sho Shimabukuro arrives ranked 104 with an Elo of 1625.36 and a form index of 55.79. His cumulative fatigue in the tournament is substantial at 210 minutes, but he carries a stronger surface strength index (11.28) and excellent serve and return indices (mean serve 95.26, mean return 89.22). Nick Kyrgios is listed with an unconventional rank of 1000, an Elo of 1507.73 and a lower form index of 32.52; his tournament fatigue is much lower at 68 minutes. Kyrgios’ serve metric is slightly higher (mean serve 96.78) while his return index (86.81) sits a touch below Shimabukuro’s. Over the last three matches at Stuttgart Sho is unbeaten, dispatching Stefanos Sakellaridis, Jurij Rodionov and Quentin Halys in straight sets with match times of 75, 79 and 56 minutes respectively — consistent grass-court wins. Kyrgios has a 1-2 record in his last three outings: a straight-sets win over Corentin Moutet in Stuttgart (68 minutes) but earlier losses to Aleksandar Kovacevic and Karen Khachanov on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sho Shimabukuro - Nick Kyrgios) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Sho Shimabukuro wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup sits at a predicted aces total of 16.6 and an expected double faults tally of 4.9. Grass typically boosts ace numbers thanks to a lower, faster bounce, and both players carry very strong serve indices, so serve-dominated games are likely. Since neither player’s serve rating is markedly higher, the projected ace count should reflect two powerful servers rather than one dominant ace artist.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.6 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Sho Shimabukuro's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (42.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shimabukuro’s higher Elo, recent flawless run on grass and stronger form give him a narrow edge in this encounter. Watch how fatigue and Kyrgios’s serve potency interact — those two factors will likely decide tight service games.

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