S Hertogenbosch Netherlands Grass Atp 250 Round of 32

Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #41
45%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #55
55%
Expected Total Games: 28.2
Predicted Winner: Botic van de Zandschulp

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current #41 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #25 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #34 2025-06-09

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current #55 2026-06-08
  • 3 mo ago #59 2026-03-02
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-12-08
  • 9 mo ago #82 2025-09-08
  • 12 mo ago #90 2025-06-09

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 26.4
ELO Rating: 1592.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1657.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.2
Clay: 17.6
Grass: 21.1
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 90.9

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 35.8
ELO Rating: 1635.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.0
Clay: 15.5
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (1-2) clay Rome 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Madrid 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (1-2) clay Munich 122 min

Botic van de Zandschulp
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) clay Rome 148 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) clay Rome 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) clay Rome 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Munich 64 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At 's-Hertogenbosch in the Netherlands, Round of 32 action on grass sets up a domestic clash between Tallon Griekspoor and Botic van de Zandschulp at an ATP 250 event. The model gives the edge to Botic van de Zandschulp — 55.08% to Griekspoor’s 44.92% — with an expected total of about 28.25 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Griekspoor arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 41) but his form index sits at 26.4 and his Elo is 1592.4. He shows strong baseline serve and return metrics in the data — a mean serve index of 97.21 and a mean return index of 90.93 — and carries no tournament fatigue. His surface strength index on grass is modest (21.14), suggesting comfort is limited compared with his overall serve numbers. Over his last three matches he has not won, posting straight-sets and longer losses on clay in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. Van de Zandschulp, ranked 55, actually posts the higher Elo (1635.16) and a better recent form index (35.80), also with no accumulated fatigue. His grass surface strength index is lower (11.03), and his mean serve and return indices (94.91 and 87.91) are slightly below Griekspoor’s but close enough that serve advantage is marginal. Recent results show one win in his last three outings and two early losses on clay, including Roland Garros and Rome contests.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.2 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tallon Griekspoor - Botic van de Zandschulp) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Botic van de Zandschulp wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This surface context drives the aces prediction: expected aces for the match are around 17.35, while the predicted double faults sit near 6.65. Grass typically boosts ace counts because of quicker, lower bounces, so the predicted aces reflect that tendency. Griekspoor’s marginally higher serve index may nudge up his share of the predicted aces, though the gap is small and unlikely to swing the match on serve alone.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.4 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.0% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tallon Griekspoor's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (30.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Van de Zandschulp’s higher Elo and better form index give him a narrow edge in this grass-court tie, despite Griekspoor’s stronger serve metrics on paper. The key factor to watch will be serve efficiency and how both handle low, fast bounces — hold-to-break conversion on grass should decide the outcome.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel