Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Terence Atmane vs Arthur Rinderknech: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #53
43%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #27
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Arthur Rinderknech

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Terence Atmane

  • Current #53 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #63 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #70 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #123 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #180 2025-03-17

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #27 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #29 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #56 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #80 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #74 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 41.3
ELO Rating: 806.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 67.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 82.4
Return Rating: 71.7

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 30.8
ELO Rating: 1535.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 98.7
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Miami 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (1-2) hard Indian Wells 145 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2) hard Acapulco 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael Jodar (2-1) hard Acapulco 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-0) hard Acapulco 82 min

Arthur Rinderknech
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) hard Indian Wells 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) hard Dubai 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jack Draper (2-1) hard Dubai 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Dubai 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Doha 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, Round of 64 on hard courts, Arthur Rinderknech is favored to progress against Terence Atmane. The model projects Rinderknech to win with a 56.81% probability versus 43.19% for Atmane, and the match is expected to contain about 23.44 games.

Match Analysis

Rinderknech arrives with the clearer statistical edge: ranked 27 vs Atmane’s 53, and an Elo of 1535.11 compared with Atmane’s 806.28. Atmane posts a higher form index (41.28) than Rinderknech (30.79), but Rinderknech’s metrics on serve and return are markedly stronger. His mean serve index (98.71) exceeds Atmane’s (82.36) by more than 16 points, and his mean return index (88.41) tops Atmane’s (71.70) by a similar margin — both substantial differences that will shape the match. Fatigue also matters: Atmane carries 67 minutes on court in this event, while Rinderknech is fresh with no accumulated minutes. Recent results underline the profiles: Atmane beat Daniel Altmaier in Miami (straight sets, 67 minutes) but had heavier outings at Indian Wells and Acapulco, losing to Grigor Dimitrov (1-2) and Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2). Rinderknech’s last three results include a big win over Jack Draper (2-1 in Dubai) and competitive losses to Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) and Andrey Rublev (0-2). Those matches show Rinderknech’s ability to produce high-level serving and returning performances even in defeats.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Terence Atmane - Arthur Rinderknech) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is elevated: expected total aces are about 21.23, reflecting Rinderknech’s premium serving profile on a medium-paced hard court. The predicted aces should be driven primarily by Rinderknech’s high serve index, while Atmane will contribute but less prolifically. Double faults prediction is modest — expected double faults roughly 4.86 for the match — consistent with hard courts producing a moderate number of service errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rinderknech’s superior serve and return indices, higher Elo and fresher legs give him the edge in a matchup likely decided by a handful of service holds and breaks. Watch Rinderknech’s first-serve effectiveness — it’s the key determinant for converting his serve power into aces and stealing short, decisive service games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel